ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Arizona Basketball Matchup

What does ESPN's computer model project for tonight's matchup?

Feb 2, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Tre White (3) and Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) visit during a time out in the second half of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

No. 11 Kansas and No. 1 Arizona will tip off tonight in Allen Fieldhouse as both teams look to secure a marquee victory. Bill Self's group is playing its best basketball of the season, entering the matchup on a seven-game winning streak, while Arizona has yet to lose all year, riding a 23-game winning streak of its own.

In the opening betting lines, the Jayhawks opened the week as rare home underdogs for just the fifth time in Self's tenure. Most sportsbooks have set the line between 1.5 and 2.5 points, suggesting there is some significant money on the Wildcats.

While the betting market slightly favors UA, what does ESPN's computer model have to say? Here's what the Matchup Predictor projects ahead of tonight.

Arizona at Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

ESPN gives Arizona nearly a three-fifths chance to win tonight. The model suggests the Wildcats are more likely than not to extend their undefeated season through this matchup, which certainly isn't what the Jayhawk faithful want to hear.

Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Arizona 58.3%, Kansas 41.7%.

Kansas On SI's Take

This projection isn't all that surprising given what the betting spread reflects. Arizona will likely be favored against almost anyone and anywhere until another team proves it can take them down.

However, if there is one environment capable of exposing even the smallest flaws in Tommy Lloyd and Co.'s approach, it is Allen Fieldhouse. KU has been exceptional on Big Monday under Coach Self, posting a perfect 38-0 record at home dating back to 2004.

Led by star freshman Darryn Peterson (20.5 PPG, 48.9% FG), the Jayhawks are well-equipped to take down even the most talented opponents. However, they will have to deal with another pair of impact freshmen in Brayden Burries (15.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Koa Peat (14.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG).

No active coach has dominated his home floor quite like Self has in this building, and the crowd will be fully engaged for one of the biggest games in recent memory. Tonight features an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, and it won't take long to find out which one can push through.

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