ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Outcome of Kansas vs Cal Baptist Game

Which team does ESPN's computer model favor going into Friday's Round of 64 matchup between Kansas and Cal Baptist?

Feb 28, 2026; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley (0) attempts to take the ball from Kansas Jayhawks guard Melvin Council Jr. (14) during the second half of the game at McKale Memorial Center. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Kansas is looking to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament this year, and that path begins on Friday evening against No. 13 seed Cal Baptist. The Lancers are riding a six-game winning streak and recently upset Utah Valley in the WAC championship game.

The Jayhawks are unsurprisingly heavy favorites in this round one matchup, with most lines sitting around 14.5 points in KU's favor. However, anything is possible in March Madness, and 4 vs. 13 upsets are not all that uncommon.

We know that betting outlets like the Jayhawks to come out on top this weekend, but what about ESPN's Matchup Predictor? Here's the percentage it gives going into the contest.

Cap Baptist vs Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

ESPN's computer model doesn't differ much from the average sportsbook. Kansas is given over a 90% chance to win, the highest mark it has received in the Matchup Predictor since nonconference play. Although Cal Baptist has won 15 of its last 17 games, ESPN gives it virtually no shot in the first round.

Mar 12, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Elmarko Jackson (13) and guard Darryn Peterson (22) get tangled up during the second half against the TCU Horned Frogs at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Kansas 92.6%, Cal Baptist 7.4%.

Kansas On SI's Take

Kansas is obviously the superior team in this game, and it probably won't be a very popular upset pick in most brackets to take the Lancers. Rick Croy's group hasn't exactly faced the toughest competition this year.

Cal Baptist finished 25-8 in the regular season, taking down Utah Tech and Utah Valley in the WAC Tournament. After a three-game losing streak to open conference play, the Lancers bounced back with a strong run through the rest of the year.

The advanced metrics don't favor Cal Baptist much, as it ranks No. 107 on KenPom with the No. 191 offense. Its top-50 defense and slow tempo do create some optimism.

What Cal Baptist does have in its favor is star point guard Dominique Daniels Jr., one of the most prolific scorers in the country at 23.2 points per game. Even though he is an incredible talent, he is extremely undersized at 5-foot-10. He's barely above the 40% mark for his career field goal percentage, and posted an 11-point, 4-for-11 shooting night in his team's only Quadrant 1 game of the year at BYU in December.

The outcome of this game will ultimately be determined by how Kansas starts. The Jayhawks have had many slow openings in recent weeks, leading to what has been their worst stretch of the season, but getting ahead early will likely put Cal Baptist in a hole it cannot dig itself out of.