ESPN Matchup Predictor Projects Kansas vs Arizona Basketball Outcome

Kansas surprised everyone earlier this month when it took down a top-ranked Arizona squad that had yet to lose a game. The Jayhawks rallied from behind double digits and pulled off one of the most memorable comebacks in recent Allen Fieldhouse history.

Later today, the two schools will meet on the hardwood again, this time in Tucson. With a win, the Wildcats would clinch a share of the Big 12 regular season title and likely lock themselves in as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

However, KU has shown that it is capable of competing with nearly any given team on its best nights. Bill Self's group will also have a healthy Darryn Peterson suiting up today after he missed the first matchup against UA with flu-like symptoms.

Arizona opened as a massive favorite in the betting spread, but what does the ESPN Matchup Predictor forecast ahead of the showdown? Here is what its computer model is projecting right now.

Kansas at Arizona: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

The matchup predictor is heavily favoring the Wildcats going into the contest. They hold nearly a four-fifths advantage in the computer model.

Feb 9, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Tre White (3) drives against Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka (30) and guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Arizona 81.1%, Kansas 18.9%.

Kansas On SI's Take

Given that the line favors Arizona by nearly 10 points, it is no surprise to see the Matchup Predictor prefer the Wildcats today. This is a tough home environment in McKale Center where Tommy Lloyd's squad has lost just once this season.

On paper, this might be the toughest game the Jayhawks have played and will play all year. Going up against a two-loss team that is likely to win the best conference in the country outright is not an easy task.

In KU's last marquee road matchup, it was obliterated by Iowa State, as the Cyclones held them to a season-low 56 points. Just like this upcoming game, Kansas won the first meeting at home, but its opponent tweaked some things in the rematch.

Although the Jayhawks did upset Texas Tech on the road thanks to some late-game heroics from Peterson down the stretch, they are just 5-4 in true road games in the 2025-26 campaign. Another important caveat to remember about that win is that TTU was playing on two days' rest without Christian Anderson, its star point guard and future first-round NBA Draft pick.

Kansas can certainly keep pace with Arizona, especially if it can get Peterson and the rest of the offense going early on. Still, falling behind vs. an opponent of this caliber would be a detrimental hole to climb out of.