How Kansas' NCAA Tournament Projections Were Affected By Iowa State Loss

Kansas' eight-game win streak was bound to end at some point, given the amount of talent at the top of the Big 12 this season. That happened Saturday, as the ninth-ranked Jayhawks fell 74-56 at No. 5 Iowa State.

While it was a missed opportunity to perhaps jump up a seed line in NCAA Tournament projections, the loss didn't seem to hurt Kansas much in the big picture. The Jayhawks remained at No. 15 in the NET rankings, and they're still one of nine teams with at least seven Quad 1 wins.

They'll have more opportunities like that moving forward, with No. 1 Arizona and No. 3 Houston and two additional Quad 1 games still on the schedule. So for coach Bill Self, it's less about the loss itself and more about how his team responds.

"It's a good chance it's going to happen again," Self said postgame. "It's a good chance Iowa State will lose again. It's a good chance Arizona will lose again. This league is good, and especially away from home."

"So, how do you think we'll react? God, I hope we react like men, because in February, when you play conference games and you play away from home, there's a great chance even the best teams leave unhappy. So we just can't let one become two."

Here's a closer look at Kansas' tournament projections, Bracketology, metrics, remaining schedule and how much the Jayhawks could rise or fall ahead of Selection Sunday on March 15.

Kansas in key NCAA Tournament metrics

Darryn Peterson Kansas Basketball — Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) drives against the Iowa State Cyclones at Hilton Coliseum, in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

NET: 14
KenPom: 15
Torvik: 13
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): +5.6 (11th)
Basketball Power Index (BPI): 14
KPI: 7
Strength of record: 11
Quad 1 record: 7-6
Quad 2 record: 6-0
Quad 3 record: 2-0
Quad 4 record: 4-0

Remaining schedule

at Oklahoma State – Quad 1
vs. No. 3 Houston – Quad 1
at No. 1 Arizona – Quad 1
at Arizona State – Quad 1
vs. Kansas State – Quad 3

Bracketology

Kansas was projected as a No. 3 seed going into Saturday's game at No. 5 Iowa State, according to CBS Sports' Bracketology. And despite a 74-56 loss and other weekend results, the Jayhawks remained a No. 3 seed in Monday's updated bracket.

In this projection, Kansas would face No. 14 North Dakota State in the Round of 64, with a potential matchup against No. 6 seed BYU in the Round of 32. The Jayhawks are in the same region as No. 1 seed Houston and No. 2 seed Purdue.

BracketMatrix.com has not updated since Feb. 13, but at that time, Kansas was projected as a No. 3 seed. That site takes into account 112 NCAA Tournament projections, which gave Kansas an average seed of 2.55. Purdue is a No. 2 seed on BracketMatrix, but also has an average seed of 2.55, as does Nebraska, a projected No. 3 seed.

What is the Jayhawks' ceiling and floor?

Flory Bidunga Kansas Basketball — Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) against Arizona Wildcats at Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 9, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kansas' resume is bolstered by seven Quad 1 wins, tied for sixth-most in the country with Texas Tech, Vanderbilt and Houston. The only teams with more Quad 1 wins are Duke (10), Arizona (9), Florida (8) and Purdue (8).

The Jayhawks also don't have any bad losses, with all coming in Quad 1. Even top-15 NET teams like Michigan, Illinois, Gonzaga, Florida, Vanderbilt and Michigan State each have one loss in Quad 2 or 3.

Kansas should still be able to make those claims come Selection Sunday, as four of its five remaining games are against Quad 1 opponents. The outlier is a Quad 3 home game against 10-15 Kansas State, which fired coach Jerome Tang on Sunday.

That means the rest of the regular season and Big 12 Tournament is full of opportunities for Kansas to boost its resume. If the Jayhawks can get to 10 Quad 1 wins by the end of the regular season and pick up another one or two in the Big 12 Tournament, jumping to a No. 2 seed is certainly possible.

Climbing all the way to a No. 1 seed is less likely, as Michigan and Duke have nearly solidified themselves as such. Kansas would need to beat Arizona and Houston, and then hope both lose another game or two. The Jayhawks would also be battling with UConn, Purdue, Illinois and Iowa State for seeding, each of whom are ahead of Kansas in the NET.

That means a No. 2 seed is likely Kansas' ceiling, but what about its floor? It's safe to assume Kansas wins easily at home against Kansas State in the regular season finale, but four Quad 1 games beforehand are not surefire victories, especially against Arizona and Houston.

In the scenario that Kansas ends the regular season on a 2-3 run and does nothing special in the Big 12 Tournament, falling to a No. 4 seed is certainly possible. CBS Sports projects Gonzaga, Louisville and Vanderbilt as the current No. 4 seeds, and each are ranked ahead of Kansas in the NET. The other is Virginia, which is five spots behind the Jayhawks.

Falling to No. 5 seed seems very unlikely, as Kansas would have to 1-4 and get eliminated in its first Big 12 Tournament game. Reality is more likely somewhere in the middle with its current projection as a No. 3 seed, alongside Florida, Nebraska and Texas Tech.

Winning at Iowa State on Saturday would have made a No. 2 seed much more realistic, but instead the Jayhawks' eight-game win streak ended with a 74-56 loss. And unless Kansas can take down Houston and Arizona –– and get some help elsewhere –– it's likely looking at a No. 3 seed.

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