Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona Wildcats Preview: A Ranked Opportunity
The Kansas Jayhawks take their undefeated record on the rod tonight in the toughest test to date. The Arizona Wildcats are a Top 15 team that will be very difficult to handle, especially on the road. But after tonight, we should have a good indication of just how strong this team can be.
With that, let's take a deep dive into tonight's opponent. What will Kansas have to overcome to stay undefeated?
Opponent Overview
Team: Arizona Wildcats
Record: 7-0
Massey Rating: 12th (29th offense, 10th defense)
Line: ARIZ -8.5
Team Form
The Wildcats are coached by head coach Adia Barnes, who has coached all seven years of her head coaching career at Arizona. She has amassed a 117-74 record in her time in Tuscon, and she is 1-0 against the Jayhawks.
The Aggies are coming off a season where they finished 21-8 overall and 10-6 in the Pac-12 Conference. They earned a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, advancing to the second round before being defeated by North Carolina.
According to Massey, they have the 29th rated offense and 10th rated defense against the 136th rated Strength of Schedule so far. On the season, the team is shooting 48.9% overall and a blistering 40.3% from three-point range, with a respectable 66.9% from the free throw line. Despite that, they hardly look to shoot the three, with only 27.8% of their shots coming from beyond the arc.
Arizona averages 88.1 points per game, 39.9 rebounds per game, 14.0 steals per game and they turn the ball over an average of 12.3 times per game.
Players to Watch
The Wildcats have players capable of big performances across the lineup, but there are a few that stand out. Shaina Pellington leads the team in scoring at 15.6 points per game. The senior guard has scored at least 15 in four of the five games she has played this season, and her but she isn't a three point threat, only having taken 5 shots beyond the arc this season. She gets most of her points going downhill towards the basket, and her ability to use her speed to open things up for others is a huge asset.
Instead, that honor belongs to Jade Loville, who is second in scoring average thanks to her red-hot shooting from beyond the arc. She is the only player that has more than 20 attempts from long range, and she is hitting them at a 48.6% clip. However, she doesn't get to the free throw line, which seems fortunate giving how terribly she is shooting from the line. But she plays solid defense, and is a crucial piece to a fantastic Arizona lineup.
In the post, Kansas will have to worry about both of the senior 6'2" senior forwards, Esmery Martinez and Cate Reese. Both are a big presence on the inside, averaging double digits in the post.
Martinez averages about 3 minutes more per game, and is a dominant rebounder in the paint. She leads the team with 9.6 rebounds per game but is also a good interior passer, averaging 2.4 assists per contest. Her defense leads to an average of 1.7 steals per game, and she is the better of the two from the field.
Reese isn't quite as good as a defender, but is still very capable. And she has been the better shooter from the line, and she leads the team in free throw percentage, excluding players with less than 5 free throw attempts on the season.
Matchups to Watch
It's pretty clear what the Wildcats do well, and that is to score in droves. They have scored 77 or more points in each of their games this season, and the smallest margin has been 17 points. However, upon closer inspection, many of these games hinged on the ability of Arizona to just outscore their opponents that couldn't keep up.
The defense for Arizona has not been great, but it doesn't matter when you have that great of an offense. However, the Jayhawks have been able to score as well, tallying 72 or more in each game despite some issues with their three point shooting.
The key here is simple: Score. That means that either the Jayhawks need improvement in their three point shooting from a combination of Holly Kersgieter (31.8%), Wyvette Mayberry (25.0%), Mia Vuksic (33.3%) and Sanna Strom (30.0%), or Taiyanna Jackson is going to have to win the battle down low consistently.
Prediction
This is by far the best team that Kansas has played so far to date, but I don't expect the Jayhawks to be intimidated by the environment. That being said, Kansas has been struggling from three, and they have had so long stretches where they have struggled to score. I don't expect that to completely go away, and it's also hard to see Arizona getting stopped for long stretches. So while I think that we will see a competitive game, I can't pull the trigger on a Kansas win. Let's hope I'm wrong.
Arizona 82, Kansas 76.
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