2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Preview: South Region

The Arizona Wildcats are in a packed region. Can they navigate through and get to the Final Four?

Here at Blue Wings Rising, we realize that you care about ALL the brackets in the NCAA Tournament, whether that's because you are looking for a leg up in your bracket pool, you secretly want validation that your off-the-wall pick to make the Final Four is COMPLETELY crazy, or you just love college basketball and can't help but read everything you can from every source available.

Whatever the reason, we have scoured the brackets, looked at the numbers and come up with the top things you need to account for when evaluating each region of the NCAA Tournament. We've already completed the East regional, the Midwest Regional and the West Regional. Finishing them up, we look at the South Regional:

The South region has a lot of strong teams, with Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee and Houston all in the Top 12 of both Kenpom and T-Rank. Sprinkle in some enticing Cinderella possibilities in Chattanooga, Loyola-Chicago and UAB, and it's the perfect recipe for an entertaining region from start to finish.

Best First Round game

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8 Seton Hall against 9 TCU

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Upset Pick

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13 Chattanooga over 4 Illinois

Big upsets in the NCAA Tournament are based on having the ability to mitigate the damage caused by the main weapons of the higher seeded teams, and having that one thing or one person that can drive the narrative of a game. The first requirement is filled by former Jayhawk Silvio De Sousa, who can challenge Illinois star Kofi Cockburn on the inside in ways that most mid-major teams can only dream of. And then add in Malachi Smith, who is lethal from 3 and has 10 games this season where he scored 25 or more points. 

Cinderella Team to Watch

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It's got to be Loyola-Chicago. This is a team that has a history of runs that is also heavily underseeded (at least according to Kenpom). They should be favored in their first game, but they could be serious challengers to Villanova in that second round game. 

They have three players that shoot better than 37% from beyond the arc, and they are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the nation. However, they don't play particularly well at the rim, struggling to pull down offensive rebounds and keeping from getting blocked. 

Best Potential Second Round/Sweet 16 Matchup

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The spot is all about Villanova, as they have some intriguing matchups here.

First, I've already mentioned the Loyola-Chicago/Villanova game. What I didn't mention is that the Ramblers have a top-25 defense, while the Wildcats have a top 10 offense to go with their Top 30 defense. It should be must-watch television.

But the Sweet 16 matchup against Tennessee is in the running for the best Sweet 16 matchup of the entire tournament. The Volunteers have a Top 5 defense to go with their top 35 offense, which should lead to a fascinating pull between strengths.

Players to Watch

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We've already talked about a couple of these players in Malachi Smith of Chattanooga and Kofi Cockburn of Illinois, but there are tons of other players worth watching. 

Specifically, Collin Gillespie of Villanova shoots 42.2% from beyond the arc and leads the Wildcats in scoring and assists. Josiah-Jordan James of Tennessee has been extremely hot lately, keying the huge run that the Volunteers have been on. Also make sure to keep an eye on Jordan Walker of UAB, who has scored 40 points in two different games this year, including the semifinals of the Conference USA championship.

Dark Horse Pick

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The Houston Cougars got dinged for a couple losses to Memphis, even though they avenged that loss in the American tournament championship and have a fantastic advanced analytics profile to go along with it. According to Kenpom, they have the #10 offense and #11 defense, and the only glaring weakness they have is their team free throw percentage. This is a team that has the personnel and statistical profile to make a deep run, but because they play in a "lesser" conference, they didn't get the respect from the committee that they deserve.

Regional Final Prediction

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Most people seem to be really confident about the Arizona Wildcats, but I'm worried about recent injury issues and the tough draw of the Houston Cougars in the Sweet 16. That being said, it's hard to pick against a team that has, outside of a weird loss in Boulder, been absolutely dominant in the last month and a half.

However, the Tennessee Volunteers are a team that is streaking at the right time, has been just as hot as Arizona, and has two fantastic wins over Kentucky to keep trending upwards. This is definitely a gut call, but I'm just feeling that Arizona isn't going to make it out of the region and Tennessee seems like the best bet.

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