ESPN FPI Predicts Every Kansas Football Game for 2026 Season

The ESPN Football Power Index, better known as FPI, is one of the more respected predictive tools used to measure college football teams. The model is released before the season and factors in things like returning production, transfer additions, and other team metrics to project how teams will perform.

Unfortunately for the Kansas football program, the model isn't particularly high on the Jayhawks. The FPI ranks Kansas No. 13 out of 16 teams in the Big 12 with a 2.8 rating. For comparison, Texas Tech ranks No. 10 nationally with a 20.0 rating, and the middle of the pack in the Big 12 sits around 5.0.

So, what does FPI think of KU on a game-by-game basis? Here are the win probabilities the model currently gives the Jayhawks.

Kansas Football Game-by-Game Predictions From ESPN FPI

Game 1 vs. Long Island University (99.0% win probability)
Game 2 vs. Missouri (28.0% win probability)
Game 3 vs. Arizona State (47.4% win probability)
Game 4 vs. Middle Tennessee State (94.1% win probability)
Game 5 at Utah (23.4% win probability)
Game 6 at Kansas State (37.4% win probability)
Game 7 vs. Baylor (45.7% win probability)
Game 8 at TCU (32.7% win probability)
Game 9 vs. UCF (61.0% win probability)
Game 10 at West Virginia (49.6% win probability)
Game 11 vs. BYU (28.1% win probability)
Game 12 at Oklahoma State (42.0% win probability)

Kansas Football Record Prediction From ESPN FPI: 3-9

Oct 28, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; A general view of the Kansas Jayhawks logo centerfield against the Oklahoma Sooners during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Kansas on SI's Breakdown

Although some of the projected "losses" have a negligible probability deficit, with three games within 5% of being a true 50/50 matchup, there's clearly not much optimism surrounding the Jayhawks this season.

Aside from the two tune-up games against Long Island University and Middle Tennessee, every other game is far from a sure thing. The FPI even projects a loss on the road to Oklahoma State, which hasn't won a conference game in 996 days.

The model projects KU to win just one of its three home conference games, with UCF being the lone projected victory. There's also a decent chance the Jayhawks come out on top against Arizona State at the neutral site in London early in the regular season (47.4%.

The team has won at least five games four years in a row, making the three-win projection a bit difficult to believe. However, most of those wins were with Jalon Daniels under center. Now that he has graduated, the quarterback battle between Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall could determine a lot.

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