ESPN Matchup Predictor Analyzes Kansas Football vs. MTSU Showdown

Kansas recently wrapped up its final bye week of the regular season and now has to play nine consecutive games without a break. The Jayhawks are reeling after a 1-2 start, but will get one more tune-up against Conference USA opponent Middle Tennessee State this week.

While the Blue Raiders aren't a gimme and could certainly put up a fight, this is still viewed as a favorable spot for an inconsistent KU squad. Lance Leipold is hoping to get his team back on track heading into Big 12 play, where the school already sits at 0-1 in league action following the loss to Arizona State in London.

Sportsbooks have the Jayhawks as a near three-touchdown favorite, but what does the ESPN Matchup Predictor forecast for this showdown? Here's the win probability for each team heading into Saturday's contest.

Middle Tennessee at Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

Middle Tennessee State sits at 2-2 this season, with victories over Murray State and Nevada. The Blue Raiders have also dropped games to South Marshall and, most recently, Jacksonville State on the road.

Sep 4, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; The Kansas Jayhawks mascot Big Jay entertains fans during the first half of the game against the LIU Sharks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Kansas 89.2%, Middle Tennessee 10.8%.

The matchup predictor doesn't give the Blue Raiders much of a chance to pull off the upset. They currently have a slightly above 10% chance of beating KU in Lawrence, according to ESPN's computer model.

Kansas on SI's Take

Very few Jayhawk fans are happy with the direction of the program right now. Kansas looks poised to miss a bowl game for the third consecutive year and continue to regress under Leipold's guidance.

Despite that fact, this remains a winnable matchup for a banged-up KU team. The Jayhawks received a much-needed break during the bye and are hoping to press the reset button after a string of ugly performances in marquee games.

MTSU does have some interesting players to watch, including quarterback Roman Gagliano (832 yards, 8 TDs), running back Antonio Martin (345 yards, 5.4 YPC), and wide receiver Cam'ron Lacy (29 receptions, 310 yards). In the Blue Raiders' two wins, they've allowed an average of 17 points and just 285 yards per game, so they're certainly capable of making life difficult for this questionable Kansas offense.

Regardless, it's difficult to envision the end result going much differently than the matchup predictor projects. Kansas will likely be 2-2 after tomorrow afternoon, but the bigger question is what's to come against more potent Big 12 opponents.

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