Kansas Football 2026 Season: Best-Case vs. Worst-Case Scenario

The 2026 Kansas football season is about to be underway as the Jayhawks continue their fall camp in preparation for the season opener versus Long Island University on Friday, Sept. 4, inside David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.

The Jayhawks are coming off of back-t0-back disappointing 5-7 seasons under head coach Lance Leipold, who may be facing a make-or-break season this fall as he enters his sixth year as leader of the program.

There are several ways this season could go for the Jayhawks. Here’s a look at the best-case versus worst-case scenario.

Best case

Ultimately, I believe the 2026 season for KU football will be answered by these three questions: How did they perform in London against Arizona State, what were the outcomes versus rival Missouri and Kansas State, and did KU reach a bowl game?

After reaching a bowl game in back-t0-back seasons in 2022 and 2023 – the first time that’s happened since 2008 – the Jayhawks have failed to get that coveted sixth win these past couple years. But if they can find a way to reach that point this year and win a bowl game, it would be hard to call the season anything but a success.

KU has a big opportunity to boost their postseason chances when the play on the international stage at Wembley Stadium in London versus Arizona State in week 3 – the first college football match ever inside the historic venue. There will be a lot of eyes on that game, and if the Jayhawks can find a way to win, there’s a strong chance they will start the season at least 3-1, which would be a big advantage heading into the thick of Big 12 play.

The only thing that would make bowl eligibility grander would be for the Jayhawks to have upset both Missouri and Kansas State along the way.

KU welcomes Missouri to Lawrence for the Border War/Showdown for the first time since 2005 when the Jayhawks beat the Tigers 13-3 under legendary Kansas football head coach Mark Mangino. It’s undoubtedly the biggest game of the season for KU, and Jayhawk fans will be clamoring for a win after coming up short in Columbia last fall (42-31) and losing six of the last seven matchups dating back to 2006.

Meanwhile, Kansas State owns a 17-year winning streak over KU. It’s one of the more embarrassing losing streaks in college football given the fact that it’s an in-state rivalry played every year and K-State is typically just an average to slightly-above-average team most years.

KU ending that streak is long overdue, and if this team can somehow find a way to do it in Manhattan during Collin Klein’s first year as KSU head coach, it would be one of Leipold’s most celebrated moments when looking back on his time in Lawrence.

The Jayhawks have a chance to end an even longer losing streak when Baylor comes to town this fall, as the Bears currently own a 19-year winning streak over the Jayhawks.

If KU can find wins against Arizona State and Missouri, end the long, embarrassing losing streaks to Kansas State and Baylor – combined with a 3-0 sweep in nonconference play to reach a bowl game that they win – that would truly be a best-case (some may some dream) scenario for this Kansas football team this year.

Worst case

The worst-case scenario for this year’s team is pretty simple: none of the things I just mentioned come true.

If KU loses to Arizona State in London and loses to their hated rival Missouri at home, that will almost certainly put the Jayhawks at 2-2 entering the Big 12 stretch in October. That would severely lessen the Jayhawks’ chances of reaching bowl eligibility and could hurt home attendance for the remainder of the year, which will already be weakened by the loss of seating due to ongoing construction to The Booth and a fairly lackluster group of Big 12 opponents scheduled to come to Lawrence this season.

What would make matters worse is if KU gets blown out in those games, loses to Kansas State for the 18th straight year, and fails to end the 19-year losing streak to Baylor when the Bears come to Lawrence. The Jayhawks would fail to reach bowl eligibility and finish with a 5-7 record at best for the third straight year.

The ramifications of this scenario could be significant when it comes to fan confidence in Leipold/his future as head coach, the financial support that KU Athletics desperately needs, and KU’s standing when conference realignment once again rears its ugly head, which it is destined to do at some point in the near future.

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