Kansas Football Big 12 Game-by-Game Predictions with Confidence Ratings

The Kansas Jayhawks escaped nonconference play with a 2-1 record, which wasn’t all that surprising given that they had to face a strong Missouri team on the road.

They are now on a bye week to receive some extra rest before kicking off Big 12 play a week from now.

KU still has some things to improve upon, but it has certainly looked like one of the better squads in the conference so far.

Here’s how confident we at Kansas On SI are about the Jayhawks coming out on top in their league play games.

West Virginia

WVU wasn’t expected to be all that good in 2025, and so far they haven’t done anything to prove preseason analysts wrong.

The Mountaineers are coming off a tough road loss to Ohio, and to make matters worse, they lost star running back Jahiem White for the season due to injury.

Rich Rodriguez’s squad has looked shaky on both sides of the ball, struggling to find consistency anywhere.

With an extra week of rest and a chance to bounce back from the Border Showdown loss, this should be a relatively comfortable home win for Kansas if the Jayhawks come out firing.

Confidence Score: 8.3/10

Cincinnati

The Bearcats may give Kansas a tougher fight than West Virginia, but they remain an extremely flawed team.

They battled in a season-opening 20-17 loss to Nebraska, though the offense was questionable as quarterback Brendan Sorsby managed just 69 passing yards and fewer than three yards per attempt.

The defense kept them in the game, but that same unit also surrendered 20 points to Bowling Green State the following week.

Cincinnati isn’t an opponent fans should completely overlook. However, this is still a home game the Jayhawks will be expected to win.

Confidence Score: 7.5/10

UCF

With Scott Frost back at the helm, the Knights are hoping to return to their winning ways, reminiscent of the 13-0 season he guided them to in 2017.

Nearly a decade later, though, this roster is far less formidable. UCF’s start has been unusual, as a pair of weather-delayed games has mired any real evaluation.

The Knights managed just three points through three quarters against Jacksonville State before escaping with a 17-10 win.

Their rushing attack has been a bright spot, piling up 464 yards on the ground, but until they face a true test like their upcoming matchup with North Carolina, it’s hard to know what to make of them.

Although Kansas should enter this road contest as a favorite, away games in the Big 12 are difficult to gauge this early.

Confidence Score: 6.9/10

Texas Tech

This is where things get tricky. Texas Tech may not have faced a true test yet, but the Red Raiders look like one of the top teams in the Big 12 right now.

Quarterback Behren Morton leads the offense, while defensive stars David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez anchor what should be a terrific defensive unit.

They’ve looked dominant against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State, though today’s matchup with Oregon State will be their first real game.

The loss of USC transfer Quinten Joyner for the season was a massive blow to the offense, but TTU still has more than enough firepower to compete for a conference title. Add in the fact that Kansas hasn’t won in Lubbock since 2001, and the Jayhawks could have their toughest regular-season challenge here.

Confidence Score: 3.5/10

Kansas State

In no way, shape, or form should Kansas fans parade about K-State’s recent struggles, especially given the history of the Sunflower Showdown. But the Wildcats truly look abysmal right now.

They’ve dropped games to Iowa State, Army, and most recently Arizona as Avery Johnson and the offense continue to struggle.

Now that KU has already lost its rivalry game with Missouri, it becomes even more important to finally end the 16-year drought against Kansas State in 2025.

This year’s meeting will be in Lawrence against a Wildcat squad that simply doesn’t seem to have it. It’s the best chance they’ll have to break the streak in quite some time. If the Jayhawks can’t come out on top here, it may just feel like there really is a curse hanging over this rivalry.

Confidence Score: 5.8/10

Oklahoma State

It’s almost incomprehensible how quickly Mike Gundy and the Pokes have fallen since last season. They went 3-0 in nonconference play in 2024, only to go winless in their Big 12 slate.

They weren’t expected to be great this season, but a 69-3 loss to Oregon last week was probably the worst defeat of the Gundy era.

Not a single aspect of this Oklahoma State team has been positive so far, and Gundy’s job could be in jeopardy by the time they make their way to Lawrence.

If the Cowboys have starting quarterback Hauss Hejny back by this game — which they are expected to — they might be able to score a few touchdowns. But it’s really hard seeing the outcome being anything other than a Jayhawk victory.

Confidence Score: 7.9/10

Arizona

I’m just going to say it — this has trap game written all over it. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has cleaned up his turnover problem from last year and looks terrific so far, throwing for 712 yards without an interception and adding nine touchdowns.

Season-opening victories over Hawaii and Weber State weren’t too convincing, but yesterday’s upset win over K-State has put the Wildcats on the map. They’ve held opponents to just 26 total points while piling up 567 rushing yards.

Arizona still has something to prove after a disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2024 with a 2-7 record in conference play, but Brent Brennan’s group looks much improved in 2025.

Heading out to the West Coast for what could be a late start time spells potential trouble for the Jayhawks.

Confidence Score: 6.0/10

Iowa State

Iowa State is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 after racking up wins over K-State and Iowa, but the Cyclones have looked extremely beatable. While they’re finding ways to win in different fashions, that doesn’t always hold up against stronger opponents.

Kansas has seemingly had ISU’s number in recent years, winning each of the last three meetings, including a 2023 matchup in Ames.

This will be another tough road test for the Jayhawks, which lowers the confidence score, but KU has more offensive firepower than the Cyclones and a better quarterback than Rocco Becht.

If the Jayhawks avoid turnovers and silly mistakes, they have a strong chance to come out on top, but that’s a big if. We’ll call this one a 50-50 split.

Confidence Score: 5.0/10

Utah

After a strange 2024 season in Utah’s first year in the Big 12, Kyle Whittingham appears to have another strong team on his hands thanks to the addition of former New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier.

The transfer has been terrific so far, putting Utah into the conversation as a legitimate sleeper to win the Big 12 title.

The outcome of this game could very well depend on where KU stands in the conference race. If the Jayhawks only have six wins by then and are merely playing for a lower-tier bowl game, this could turn into a comfortable win for Utah.

But if Kansas is still in the hunt for a Big 12 title or chasing double-digit victories, then this matchup could be one of the most anticipated games of the entire season.

Confidence Score: 5.4/10