Why Kansas Basketball's Road to a 6-Seed in the NCAA Tournament Matters

The Jayhawks enter the Big 12 Tournament off of one of its best wins of the season

Feb 3, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at Allen Fieldhouse. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

It has been a tough go for Kansas basketball in 2024-25, at least by Kansas' sky-high standards, but in the grand scheme of things, just how bad have things really been? The Jayhawks finished the regular season Saturday with one of its best wins of the year, beating No. 24 Arizona 83-76 in Lawrence.

Now, that regular season record finishes at just 20-11 overall and 11-9 in the Big 12 which is well below the Kansas standard. But it's still respectable enough to potentially set the Jayhawks up for a favorable NCAA Tournament draw. Here's how.

Kansas in Latest Joe Lunardi's Bracketology

Joe Lunardi of ESPN updated his Bracketology projections late Saturday night and still has Kansas on the seven-line. His latest projection calls for Kansas to be the No. 7 seed in the Midwest region with a first round game against Arkansas. Bill Self and John Calipari in March would certainly move meters, but can Kansas move up a spot to a six-seed?

Kansas' Road to a Six Seed in NCAA Tournament

Mar 8, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks center Hunter Dickinson (1) drives to the basket during the second half against the Arizona Wildcats at Allen Fieldhouse. / William Purnell-Imagn Images

The most important thing Kansas basketball has to do is take care of business itself in the Big 12 Tournament. No, it doesn't have to run the table and win the whole thing but it must get by Utah or UCF in its first game before what would be a meeting with Arizona in the quarterfinals. After what happened Saturday in Lawrence, beating Arizona is clearly do-able.

Following that game would be a quarterfinal date. Based on seeding on likely betting lines, that'd be with Texas Tech, a team that won at Kansas just over a week ago. I'm not certain Kansas has to necessarily beat Texas Tech to be in the six-seed discussion, but if it were to lose it would need to be an extremely close game.

Get past that and all of a sudden Kansas is cooking with gas in terms of the six-seed.

Kansas Needs Help Nationwide in Conference Tournaments

Feb 24, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self calls out in the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Far and away the most important thing is that Kansas takes care of its own business and has a strong showing in the Big 12 Tournament. Beyond that, it could use some help around the country.

The Big Ten is still finishing up its regular season as I write this on Sunday morning, but Kansas' interest there would be in rooting against Illinois, Michigan, and UCLA. Those three have the most comparable resumes to Kansas and early losses by as many would be best for the Jayhawks case.

Elsewhere, Marquette, Memphis, UConn, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Creighton are others right in the potential six-eight seed territory. It's pretty simple but the more of those that lose early in conference tournaments, the better for Kansas, again assuming it takes care of its own business.

6-Seed vs. 7-Seed: Why Does it Matter?

Apr 4, 1988; Kansas City, MO, USA; FILE PHOTO; Kansas Jayhawks forward (25) Danny Manning during the 1988 Final Four against Oklahoma. Kansas defeated Oklahoma 83-79. / Malcolm Emmons-Imagn Images

Listen, you draw a six or seven seed in the NCAA Tournament then your road to the Final Four is going to incredibly difficult. However, history is on the side of the six-seed being able to that historically.

Since seeding began in the 1978 NCAA Tournament, a six-seed has made it to the Final Four six times, compared to a seven-seed getting there just four. It's not a massive difference but is still noteworthy.

What's also noteworthy is that six 11-seeds have made the Final Four all-time while only the 2016 Syracuse team has reached it as a 10-seed. The 11 plays the same path as the six-seed would, so that speaks to wanting that path. Why the difference though?

The difference in getting to play a three-seed in the second round as opposed to playing the strength of a two-seed is large. Couple that with then getting to play the likely two-seed in the Sweet 16 after having four of five days to prepare instead of on short rest like you would in the second round and the difference starts to make sense.

Kansas has its work cut out to get there and will probably need a little help along the way, but don't forget, one of those six-seeds to run the table and cut down the nets at the national championship was that 1988 Kansas team led by Danny Manning.

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