Staff Predictions: Kentucky-No. 25 Louisville
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Rivalry week has arrived in Lexington, as the No. 25 Louisville Cardinals will enter Kroger Field for the Governor's Cup on Saturday afternoon. The Cards (7-4, 4-4 ACC) are one of the hottest teams in the nation, while the Wildcats (6-5, 3-5 SEC) are looking to snap a two-game losing skid to close out the 2022 regular season.
Ahead of the matchup, here are Wildcats Today's final staff predictions:
Hunter
Just take a moment and reflect on how we got here. In October, it looked like this game was going to be another blowout by Kentucky, as Louisville appeared to be a shell of its program. Now, the Cards are on a heater to finish the season while the Cats are just looking to stay above .500, and Vegas has UK as just 3-point favorites at home.
Usually when breaking down rivalry games, you try and throw away all of those numbers and stats that should be difference makers. Random and crazy things happen when a trophy is on the line. However, there is one clear statistic that I believe will be the difference maker. Sacks.
Louisville leads the nation in them, while only five other teams have given up more sacks than Kentucky this season. To me, it's as simple as the Cards stacking the box, smashing past the UK offensive line, getting to Will Levis and being disruptive in the backfield. Yes, the Big Blue Wall played better against Georgia, but even offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said the styles matched up well. Let's not pretend like Kentucky will just be able to deny UofL on defense.
Presuming Malik Cunningham plays at quarterback for the Cardinals, I believe he will be able to follow the blueprint that Vandy QB Mike Wright laid out a couple of weeks ago. Make off-schedule plays happen, extend drives with his legs. I think getting in the end zone will be tough for both teams, unless explosive plays are out and about. I don't expect to see more than two scores from inside the 10-yard line on Saturday.
It's the final home game for Levis and many UK seniors, but I can't look past the trend that has been set this season. Kentucky's offense has been awful, and I don't see some added emotion making a dent in what will be a low-scoring effort.
Louisville 21, Kentucky 13
Matt
It has been a rather disappointing season for Rich Scangarello's offensive attack. Tomorrow will be the last time the Cats have Will Levis behind center, and this game feels like a must win heading into bowl season.
Ideally, the Cats will stay balanced and try to win the game their way. But if I am Scangarello, I am letting the reins loose. Let Levis air it out and then open the run even more. Louisville doesn't have anyone that can run with Barion Brown, and Kentucky needs to feed him. This is a big game, and I like Kentucky to find a way to grind a win out going into the off-season.
Kentucky 31, Louisville 27
Click here for our Governor's Cup preview.
Kentucky coordinators and players previewed the rivalry game on Tuesday.
Will Levis didn't commit to playing in Kentucky's bowl game. More here.
Kentucky's latest depth chart can be found here.
More on Mark Stoops' new contract extension here.
Want the latest on national football and basketball recruiting, including Cats targets? Head over to SI All-American for the latest news, blogs, and updates about the nation's best prospects.
Sports Illustrated also offers insight, information and up to the minute details for gamblers. Check it out here.
