Michigan Football Bowl Projections After Dropping Second Consecutive Game

Michigan’s 0-2 start to Big Ten play has analysts rethinking where the Wolverines could land this postseason.

Oct 3, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Michigan Wolverines cornerback Shamari Earls (2) awaits the snap against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the second quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It was another disappointing week for Michigan football fans, as the Wolverines fell to Minnesota 20-14 on the road. With the loss, Michigan drops to 0-2 in Big Ten play, more than likely already eliminating itself from conference championship aspirations.

Now, the postseason hopes are starting to look more somber by the week. 

With back-to-back losses, here are updated projections from different analysts on Michigan’s postseason destination.

Oct 3, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Jordan Marshall (23) runs with the ball against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN

This is the biggest change in the projections for Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach of ESPN since the season began. The duo released their projections Monday morning (Oct. 5) and both dropped the Wolverines in their caliber of bowl game.

Bonagura has Michigan in the Cactus Bowl, which takes place on Dec. 26 at 7:30 p.m. It is the first time we have seen this pick from anyone. He has Oklahoma State as the selected opponent. The Cowboys are 3-1, with their only loss coming to Tulsa in the opening week.

For Schlabach, he projected the Maize and Blue to play on Jan. 2 in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, with Virginia on the other side of the ball. The Cavaliers are also sitting at 3- and are coming off a loss to Florida State.

Oct 3, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive back Chris Bracy (7) is called for pass interference against Minnesota Golden Gophers wide receiver Noah Jennings (13) in the end zone during the first quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sports Illustrated 

Another new prediction for the Wolverines as  Bryan Fischer of Sports Illustrated released his list of Bowl Game projections on Sunday (Oct. 4).

After having Missouri as the predicted opponent last week, Fischer now has the Louisville Cardinals as Michigan’s bowl game matchup in the Pinstripe Bowl. With the Cards coming off back-to-back losses, this could be a likely scenario depending on whether the Wolverines can get back on track.

Sep 26, 2026; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lincoln Kienholz (3) looks to throw during the first quarteragainst Wake Forest Demon Deacons at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Carter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

College Football News

For three consecutive weeks, Pete Fiutak of College Football News had the same prediction. Michigan taking on Tennessee in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Now, that has changed, moving opponents and bowl games. Fiutak has Michigan taking on Mississippi State in the Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl on Dec. 30.

Michigan head coach Kyle Whittingham reacts to 20-19 loss to Iowa at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Final Takeaways

These predictions are the biggest change we’ve seen since the start of the 2026 campaign.

If Michigan continues to play like it did this past week, the Wolverines might barely be bowl eligible. That may seem overdramatic, but with Indiana, Oregon, UCLA and Ohio State still on the schedule, it could get worse for the Maize and Blue.

After the upcoming bye week, UofM will have a chance to get right against a Penn State team that has struggled as of late.

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