Michigan football’s CFP chances rise despite scare against Northwestern

Michigan almost blew any chance it had of making the College Football Playoff this past Saturday against Northwestern in Wrigley Field. The Wolverines held a 21-9 lead, but late turnovers, including two interceptions by Bryce Underwood, allowed the 'Cats to take a lead. It took a 31-yard field goal by Dominic Zvada, as time expired, to win a 24-22 game.

While Michigan lost the turnover battle 5-0, it was survive and advance for Sherrone Moore's program. Even with the close call, Michigan remained No. 18 in ESPN's Football Power Index.

What is the FPI and how does it calculate its rankings?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Michigan's Remaining Odds

Following the tight win over Northwestern, Michigan improved its standings in a lot of areas on ESPN's FPI. The Wolverines are now projected to go 9-3 on the season -- improving from 8.8-3.2 from last week. Michigan also has a 12.3% chance to win out, which is also improved.

Even Michigan's Playoff chances are getting boosted. Although the odds aren't great, the Wolverines now have an 8.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Last week, the Wolverines had just over a 6% chance of doing so. Like the old saying goes from Dumb and Dumber, "So you're telling me there's a chance". Yes, there is a chance, but the Wolverines will need to win their next two games.

Wolverines taking on the Terrapins

Maryland QB Malik Washington — Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Michigan has dominated the Maryland Terrapins since the Terps' arrival in the Big Ten Conference. For the entirety of the two programs, Michigan has gone 11-1 against Maryland, with the Terrapins' only win coming in 2014 against the Wolverines.

Michigan has won the last eight games against the Terps. The Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 when traveling to College Park. The last time the two schools met was back in 2023, in College Park, where Michigan held on and beat Maryland, 31-24. Michigan would go on to win the national title that year.

The last two meetings between Maryland and Michigan were tight wins for the Wolverines. The year before the 2023 meeting, Michigan beat Maryland in the Big House, 34-27, in 2022.

Michigan's Remaining Odds

Wolverines taking on the Terrapins

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