Michigan football's odds vs. Michigan State, Playoff chances after win vs. Washington

Michigan has a chance to accomplish its goals the rest of the way out.
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The Wolverines put together arguably their best 60 minutes of football this past weekend. Going up against a Washington team that should have been ranked heading into Saturday's game against Michigan, the Wolverines were dominant and left with a 24-7 win over the Huskies.

Michigan's win put the Wolverines back into the AP Top 25 heading into Week 9 action against rival Michigan State. Michigan's win also boosted it up ESPN's updated Football Power Index. Heading into the Washington game, the Wolverines were at No. 17 and now Michigan is ranked No. 16 -- moving up one spot.

What is the FPI and how does it calculate its rankings?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Michigan's Remaining Odds

Following the win vs. Washington, the Wolverines are now projected to go 8.7-3.4 for the rest of the season. That means the analytics are teetering towards Michigan only losing one more game from here on out with Ohio State being the most likely loss on the schedule for the Wolverines.

Michigan has just a 7.2% chance to win out -- with that OSU game starting the Wolverines right in the face. The Wolverines have just a 2% chance to win the Big Ten Conference and a 14.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Those Playoff odds have gone up from last week -- the Wolverines had just an 11% chance a week ago.

Wolverines' Odds vs. Michigan State

For the fourth year in a row, Michigan will take on Michigan State in primetime. This year, the game is in East Lansing and the analytics aren't giving the Spartans much of a chance. Michigan has a 87.8% chance to take down the struggling Michigan State program.

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Trent Knoop
TRENT KNOOP

Trent began writing and covering Michigan athletics back in 2020. He became a credentialed member of the media in 2021. Trent began writing with Sports Illustrated in 2023 and became the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines On SI during the 2025 football season. Trent also serves as the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI. His other bylines have appeared on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.

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