Cowbell Corner

Official game prediction for Mississippi State's SEC-opener vs. Tennessee

Mississippi State faces its toughest test yet against No. 15 Tennessee. We break down the three reasons that support our prediction.
Taylor Hodges|
Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Brenen Thompson (0) reacts after a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.
Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Brenen Thompson (0) reacts after a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

Mississippi State has already shown it’s a lot better than it was a year ago.

But was there enough improvement for the Bulldogs to compete with the SEC’s best teams?

Maybe, but probably not.

No. 15 Tennessee represents the best competition Mississippi State will have faced through the first month of the season.

Yes, that 24-20 win over then-No. 12 Arizona State was great. But the Sun Devils aren’t close to the Volunteers, in terms of overall talent level, and the Bulldogs barely escaped with a win in that game.

So, apologies in advance, but I’m predicting Tennessee to win 45-31. I expect there to be lots of scoring, lots of deep balls thrown downfield.

And, who knows? Maybe the Bulldogs get a pick-six that changes the entire game. It’s what happened in our EA College Football 26 simulation of the game.

There are three reasons, though, that I believe are going to be the reasons Tennessee leaves Starkville with a win.

Reason 1: Mississippi State penalties

There are 134 FBS teams and only one team has more penalties against it than Mississippi State.

That’d be Georgia State with 45. Mississippi State has had 41 penalties called in four games that have cost them a total of 356 yards. It’s the second-most penalties in the nation and is tied with Hawaii, who has played five games already.

This isn’t a new problem, though. Here’s the game-by-game breakdown for the Bulldogs’ penalties:

  • Southern Miss: 14 for 119 yards
  • Arizona State: 6 for 60 yards
  • Alcorn State: 10 for 74 yards
  • Northern Illinois: 11 for 103 yards

It’s not just the quantity, but the timing. Three penalties have negated Mississippi State touchdowns, two against Southern Miss and one against Alcorn State.

And head coach Jeff Lebby has said the penalties are a problem.

“It's bad football, that's just the attention to detail,” Lebby said this past Monday. “It's understanding what it's doing to us situationally, and how it's taking chunk runs off the board. So again, the playing penalties, we got to clean up from a fundamental standpoint and a technique standpoint. We were able to overcome, but don't want to have to overcome. We want to be able to go play clean.”

Southern Miss, Alcorn State and Northern Illinois couldn’t take advantage of the penalties. Arizona State came really close.

Tennessee is very capable of making the Bulldogs pay for penalties and cleaning up penalties in one week doesn’t seem very possible.

Reason 2 Tennessee pass rush vs. Mississippi State pass blocking

East Tennessee State Buccaneers quarterback Jacolby Criswell (6) is sacked.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers quarterback Jacolby Criswell (6) is sacked by Tennessee Volunteers defensive lineman Joshua Josephs (19) during the first quarter at Neyland Stadium. | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

The Volunteers are great at rushing quarterbacks. They rank second in the SEC and sixth nationally with 3.75 sacks per game.

Mississippi State is better at protecting its quarterbacks this year, but ranks 11th in the SEC and 52nd nationally in sacks allowed with 1.5 per game and six total.

If the Bulldogs can keep Shapen upright and give time for the speedy receivers to get downfield, then some big things could happen.

I’m just skeptical about Mississippi State’s ability to do that.

Reason #3: Tennessee Rush Attack vs. Mississippi State Run Stopping

Tennessee Volunteers running back Star Thomas (9) runs the ball against the UAB Blazers during the second half.
Tennessee Volunteers running back Star Thomas (9) runs the ball against the UAB Blazers during the second half at Neyland Stadium. | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

This is the main reason I’m predicting Tennessee to win.

Mississippi State is allowing teams an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game, which is a huge improvement on last season’s 216.9 yards per game.

But if you only account for FBS teams, this season’s average jumps up to 159.3.

And if you only look at the lone Power 4 team the Bulldogs have faced, Arizona State, they gave up 251 rushing yards.

The Sun Devils’ comeback came on the legs of its rushing attack in the second half and if they had 252 rushing yards, Brenen Thompson’s touchdown would’ve only been game-tying.

Tennessee is already averaging 216.3 yards per game, which ranks fifth in the SEC and 27th in the nation. Against the vaunted Georgia defense, the Volunteers ran for 125 yards and had 3.7 yards per carry.

I fully expect the Volunteers to test the maroon and white Bulldogs’ run defense and I’m afraid those tests are going to come back with high grades.

DAWGS FEED:

Published
Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas, but he was taken to Razorback pep rallies at Billy Bob's Texas in Fort Worth before he could walk. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

Home/Football