Three reasons why Arkansas will beat Mississippi State

The Razorbacks are the favorites to win Saturday's game because of several reasons, and here are just a few.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Somebody will leave Razorback Stadium on Saturday with their first SEC win of the season.

Both Mississippi State and Arkansas are winless in their SEC games this season and both have experienced some heart-breaking losses in those games.

One loss was so heart-breaking the Razorbacks fired their coach and named Bobby Petrino the interim head coach. If Mississippi State isn’t the team leaving the field with a win, the fans will want a similar response.

And it could very well happen. Arkansas winning, not Jeff Lebby being fired.

The Razorbacks are the favorites in the eyes of oddsmakers with a 4.5-point spread and SP+ Projections give Arkansas a 56 percent win probability.

Here are three reasons why Arkansas will win Saturday’s game and prove those odds correct.

Arkansas can run the ball

The Razorbacks are averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game and ranks second in the SEC and 22nd in the nation.

Mississippi State’s defense has gotten better at limiting opposing offenses’ rushing attacks and just help Texas to 72 rushing yards last week. But that was the only non-FCS opponent that hasn’t ran for at 100 yards.

Arizona State ran for 251 yards, Tennessee had 131, Florida had 172 and Texas A&M had the most with 299. Even Northern Illinois (125 yards) and Southern Miss (102 yards) had success running the ball against Mississippi State.

The Razorbacks need to keep its defense off the field as much as possible and running the ball can do that.

And if Arch Manning can find some success running the ball himself (he did score a rushing touchdown against the Bulldogs), imagine what Taylen Green can do. Speaking of which…

Taylen Green is special

Green leads the nation in yards of total offense with 2,781. A lot of that is passing (2,178), but the danger for Mississippi State is what he can do with his legs.

Through eight games, Green has amassed 603 rushing yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

“They've got a quarterback that is elite at everything that he does,” Lebby said. “Their ability to score and play great offensively is very well documented.”

The last time Green faced Mississippi State he had one of his best games with six touchdowns and almost 400 yards of total offense.

The punt return wild card

Did Texas expose a fatal flaw in Mississippi State’s special teams?

The 79-yard punt return for a touchdown Texas had that tied last Saturday’s game in the fourth quarter was eyebrow-raising.

Punter Ethan Pulliam was being considered one of the best punters in the nation with a 47.8 average per punt and 12 punts of 50 yards or more.

But against Texas, a 57-yard punt doomed the Bulldogs. Simply put, he outkicked his coverage.

Arkansas hasn’t had any touchdowns on punt returns, but it does have a reigning All-American punt returner in that role.

Kam Shanks led the nation in punt return yards (329), average (20.6) and touchdowns (2) last season with UAB.

If Texas did expose flaw, Shanks could be the one to benefit from it the most.