Three reasons why Mississippi State will win the 122nd Egg Bowl

The Bulldogs aren't favored to upset its archrival during a historic season, but there are reasons fans should believe in the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive back Jahron Manning (13) and defensive back Brylan Lanier (3) react against the Georgia Bulldogs against during the first half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

The 122nd edition of the Battle for the Golden Egg is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic.

There’s the ongoing drama at Ole Miss with its head coach amidst a historic season that’ll see the Rebels go to the playoffs with win a win. Maybe even keep its head coach from leaving, too.

Then there’s Mississippi State who is three plays away from being 8-3 and should already be bowl eligible (the loss to Florida looks worse each week). But its not and desperately needs a win for reasons other than going to a bowl game.

The odds, unsurprisingly, are not in the Bulldogs’ favor.

But it’s the Egg Bowl. Things like records and odds don’t matter when the Bulldogs and Rebels faceoff.

Each side has their own reasons why they should be confident in winning Friday morning’s game at Davis Wade Stadium.

We already covered the reasons for Ole Miss, now it’s Mississippi State’s turn:

Deafening distractions

Starkville is like one of those silent monasteries compared to the noise in Oxford this week.

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is the most-talked about person in the sports world this week as we wait for his decision about his coaching future.

Will he stay in Ole Miss? Will he leave for LSU? If he leaves will he coach in the playoffs? How would him leaving impact playoff seeding? Who would replace him? Why is he leaving after that E60 Documentary?

There’s very little being discussed about the game itself.

Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best stories of the year. Barely mentioned.

Kewan Lacy is a Doak Walker Award finalist. Great, now back to the coaching drama.

Ole Miss has tried to silence the noise, but the noise isn’t going anywhere until Saturday when an announcement is “expected.”

All the while Mississippi State is quietly sitting and waiting for Friday morning.

Maroon motivation

This is it. This is the Bulldogs’ last chance to go to a bowl game (technically they could still go bowling with five wins if there’s not enough six-win teams).

That’s been the biggest goal of the season. It’s time to pull out all of the stops.

Those trick plays with Blake Shapen and Kamario Taylor in the backfield at the same time. Run them all.

Got some fake punt or field goals in the bag? Give them a go.

Defense been hiding a five or six-man defensive line? Definitely give that a try.

Tomorrow isn’t guaranteed and if there’s no tomorrow, the Mississippi State fan base won’t be happy.

Because think back to how the season started. The Bulldogs were 4-0 at the start of SEC play and lost a close, overtime game to Tennessee. There was hope, optimism and even a little bit of hype in Starkville.

All of that is gone. Now fans are pleading for a quarterback change and even significant coaching changes in the offseason.

A win in the Egg Bowl won’t fully restore all the lost hope, but it’ll bring some of it back as we move into what’s going to be an eventful offseason.

Turnovers

Here’s the one on-the-field reason why Mississippi State should be confident it can win.

Overall, the Bulldogs are decent at not turning the ball over. Yes, there were two pick sixes against Missouri and a few more ill-timed, very costly interceptions thrown.

But the Bulldogs take more than they give. The Rebels give more than they take.

Ole Miss has a -0.27 turnover margin, which ranks 12th in the SEC. Usually, great teams don’t have a negative turnover margin and the Rebels have been lucky enough to avoid ill-timed interceptions and fumbles.

That luck will run out eventually and tens of thousands of cowbells is pretty good at emptying the luck tank.