Cowbell Corner

What the EA Sports simulation says about Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M

Before Mississippi State faces Texas A&M, see how EA College Football 26 predicts the game will unfold.
Taylor Hodges|
Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Seydou Traore (8) dives for a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.
Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Seydou Traore (8) dives for a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

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Mississippi State BulldogsTexas A&M Aggies

Mississippi State fans will be hard-pressed to find many predictions favoring their team to upset No. 6 Texas A&M on Saturday.

The Aggies remain heavy favorites to extend the Bulldogs’ SEC winless streak to 14 games.

FanDuel Sportsbook’s line hasn’t changed since yesterday (14.5-point spread). ESPN’s matchup predictor hasn’t changed either and SP+ Projections don’t change during the week.

Unfortunately, our EA College Football 26 simulation doesn’t offer a different alternative. But it does show a potential pathway to a Mississippi State victory.

(As a reminder, we run this simulation on Heisman difficulty and no rosters or depth charts have been edited. We also set the game time as close to the real life scheduled time and give the game clear weather conditions. Neither team has a user controlling them and we only run this simulation once.)

The “bend but don’t break” defensive strategy worked once against Arizona State. The Bulldogs broke against Tennessee.

If Mississippi State’s defense only bends and doesn’t break (i.e., allow field goals, not touchdowns), then an upset is very realistic.

That’s what happens in this week’s game simulation.

Video game summary

The Aggies are held to only field goals in a 12-7 win.

The problem in the simulation was the offense not scoring any points until the fourth quarter.

Blake Shapen threw two interceptions and that’s a big reason the Bulldogs were held scoreless for that long. However, this is a video game and at least one of those interceptions wouldn’t happen because it’s highly unlikely the real-life version of Shapen would try to make that throw.

What can we learn from this?

But the big picture for us isn’t how the turnovers happened.

It’s the same lesson the real Mississippi State team learned last week when the Volunteers scored 14 points on defensive plays to beat the Bulldogs 41-34 in overtime.

Take away one of those turnovers and Mississippi State is undefeated and ranked right now (maybe because there’s no guarantee the Bulldogs would’ve scored points on those drives, but it would’ve taken more time off the clock so maybe Tennessee doesn’t have enough time at the end for that game-tying drive).

As always, do take this with a grain of salt. It is a video game and gamers know games make weird choices sometimes, like giving Fluff Bothwell just four carries.

But for Mississippi State fans looking for a ray of hope, this is about the best you’ll get.

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas, but he was taken to Razorback pep rallies at Billy Bob's Texas in Fort Worth before he could walk. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

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