What would a Mississippi State upset over Texas A&M look like?

The Bulldogs have a tall order to fill if they want to go into College Station and leave with their first SEC win two years. But anything can happen.

Texas A&M Aggies defensive end Cashius Howell (9) reacts after a sack during the fourth quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Mississippi State faces its biggest challenge away from Davis Wade Stadium this Saturday against No. 6 Texas A&M.

Not only are the Aggies the highest-ranked team the Bulldogs have to travel too, but the Aggies might actually be really, really good. Plus, Kyle Field’s 100,000-plus capacity makes its one of the toughest places to play.

It’s no surprise Mississippi State is a huge underdog against them.

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Texas A&M a 78.9 percent chance to win and FanDuel Sportsbook has Texas A&M as a 14.5-point favorite.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ Projections actually give the Bulldogs that best chance to win with a project margin of victory for Texas A&M just 4.9 points.

Texas A&M has everything a football team would want. Great offensive line, great running backs, dual threat quarterback, two great wide receivers and a defense continuously improving (held Auburn 0-for-13 on third down attempts last week).

Highest Graded SEC Linebacker from Week 5:

🔴 Taurean York, Texas A&M: 83.2@AggieFootball pic.twitter.com/QbEnEeX8cw

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 29, 2025

Fortunately, what happens in a game doesn’t always match with the pregame predictions and, so, Mississippi State could win.

What would that look like?

An upset could happen for any number of reasons, but to increase its chances, these are the things Mississippi State should try do or avoid doing.

And we’ll start with two quick ones…

Injuries and Penalties

The initial Student-Athlete Availability Reports will come Wednesday night, but Mississippi State should be hoping names such as Isaac Smith, Brenen Thompson and Albert Reese IV aren’t on it.

All three of them left Saturday’s game against Tennessee and did not return. The Bulldogs absolutely need all three of them healthy to beat the Aggies. Thompson may be the biggest loss because he’s an elite-level deep threat.

The other quick thing is the Bulldogs need to have one of their “good” penalty days and not get flagged 10 or more times. They should also hope Texas A&M wants to take over the title of “most penalized FBS team” and has another 13-penalty game.

Run, run, run

Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell should have 40-plus combined carries Saturday.

Having a successful rushing attack will go a long way to helping the Bulldogs’ upset the Aggies. Running the ball does all of the stuff you’re familiar with (e.g. keeps the clock moving, keeps your defense off the field, etc.) but also opens up a lot of stuff in Mississippi State’s playbook, like throwing deep down field.

The Bulldogs’ rushing attack worked well against the Volunteers. Bothwell had his second-straight 100-yard rushing day and Booth would’ve broken 100 yards if not for a holding penalty.

Also, Texas A&M’s pass rush is just as good as Tennessee’s. So, having a good run game limits the number of times that becomes a factor.

Fastest average time to pressure, FBS DLs:

1) Clemson: 3.00 seconds
2) Texas A&M: 3.02
3) Tennessee: 3.04
3) Louisville: 3.04
5) Army: 3.08
6) Utah: 3.09
7) Michigan: 3.11
8) Texas Tech: 3.12
8) Pittsburgh: 3.12
8) Duke: 3.12
11) UConn: 3.15
12) Bowling Green: 3.16
13)… pic.twitter.com/D76A7NRAxV

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 30, 2025

Disruptive defensive line

This is a lot easier said than done considering how good Texas A&M’s offensive line is, but the Bulldogs’ defensive line needs to spend a lot of time in the Aggies’ backfield.

Texas A&M has so many offensive weapons that Mississippi State probably can’t stop them all. But the best way to impact all of that is throw of the Aggies’ rhythm and timing.

Make Le’Veon Moss have to dodge a defender two steps after getting the handoff. Make Marcel Reed have to throw the ball quickly.

Make the Aggies worry about a defender in their backfield instead of the play called.

Luck

This is final ingredient required for most upsets. At some point, Mississippi State needs a little bit of luck to come its way.

Maybe a fumble bounces perfectly into the hands of a Bulldog defender? Or more tipped passes intercepted?

Or maybe a quarterback slipping and falling on third down in overtime?

Anything and everything will be needed for Mississippi State to win this game.