How Can Mizzou Women's Basketball Make the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

What the Tigers need to do to punch their ticket to the big dance for the first time since 2019.

Missouri guard Shannon Dowell (1) tries to get around Florida guard Alexia Dizeko (9) during the first half of an NCAA Women’s basketball game at Exactech Arena in the Steven C. O'Connell Center in Gainesville, FL on Sunday, January 18, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A disastrous 0-4 start to conference play seemed to dash Missouri's NCAA Tournament hopes in its first season of being led by Kellie Harper. The Tigers are 4-2 since earning their first SEC win and have rattled off three straight wins, including back-to-back road victories.

Columbia is the fifth stop at the Division I coaching ranks for Harper — she has taken each of her previous schools to the NCAA Tournament for a total of nine appearances. She began three of those tenures with bids in the first possible tournaments as head coach.

The early woes of Missouri (16-9, 4-6 in SEC) navigating the gauntlet that is an SEC schedule suggested Harper's 10th appearance, and the Tigers' first since 2019 would have to wait. It was a home victory over Texas A&M that kicked off the current streak. Missouri followed that up with its first Quad 1 win of the season, defeating Mississippi State in Starkville, suddenly reigniting its tournament aspirations. The Tigers tallied their third consecutive win, defeating Arkansas to match their best conference win streak since 2023.

Across the current streak, Missouri's leading scorer Grace Slaughter has totaled 66 points, while Shannon Dowell has topped the Tigers' scoring charts with 21 and 25 points respectively in her two most recent outings. The duo will be heavily relied on in the coming weeks.

In recent test of resiliency, Missouri's center Jordana Reisma, the only active big on the roster this season, suffered an injury. She missed the game game against the Razorbacks, as the Tigers battled through adversity. There is no update as of yet on how this injury will impact the remainder of Missouri's season.

Missouri has the opportunity to ride its current momentum into the bubble conversation, score a couple of major upsets, and punch its ticket into the big dance.

A season ago, the SEC sent 10 teams to the NCAA Tournament. The final team to receive an at-large bid was Mississippi State, which boasted a 22-12 overall record with a 7-9 conference slate. The Bulldogs ranked 52nd in terms of strength of schedule. Meanwhile, the Tigers have the 35th strongest schedule this year. If Missouri can end up with a similar final record as Mississippi State from a year ago, an at-large bid could be just within reach.

Currently, the SEC is projected to have 11 teams in the tournament — this would be the second-highest single conference total in women's March Madness history. The Big Ten achieved the record-setting feat of qualifying 12 teams last year. With the SEC being the consensus best conference in the country this year, 12 teams in the field is not out of the realm of possibility.

Amongst the current issues, Missouri ranks No. 69 in the latest NET — the 13th best in the SEC, despite claiming the No. 11 seed in the conference if the SEC tournament were to begin today.

Right on the Tigers' heels is Auburn, slotted in at the No. 72 position. With a slight advantage over the Tigers, Florida is ranked No. 53 in the NET. The Gators won the head-to-head matchup in Gainesville on Jan. 18. However, they have only two conference wins at the moment, which works in the Tigers' favor.

The worst conference record of an SEC team to qualify for an at-large bid is 6-10, achieved by Arkansas in 2015 and again by Texas A&M in 2024.

No team should sit comfortably on Selection Sunday with a 6-10 conference record. The same goes for a 7-9 conference slate, though the odds sit more in your favor. History tends to side with .500 SEC play teams, marking the sweet spot to receive an invitation to go dancing. So, with six games remaining of the regular season, which outings do the Tigers need to have highlighted on their calendar?

Must Win:

• Auburn, No. 72 in the NET, at Mizzou Arena on Feb. 19.

The Tigers cannot afford any losses to teams with similar rankings. A loss to Auburn would likely guarantee Missouri misses the tournament.

Must Win At Least 2/3

• Georgia, No. 34 in the NET, at Mizzou Arena on Feb. 8.

The next game on the Tigers' calendar, a win over Georgia, would result in their second Quad 2 win of the season and continue their current wave of momentum. Missouri is at a massive advantage with this being played at home.

• Tennessee, No. 19 in the NET, in Knoxville on Feb. 12.

There is plenty of history leading up to this matchup. Harper is a former player for the Lady Vols under Pat Summit and later coached them from 2019 to 2024, her last coaching gig before Missouri. A win would provide a Quad-1 win for the Tigers and offer a sense of redemption for Harper, who was let go from Tennessee nearly two years ago.

• Oklahoma, No. 12 in the NET, at Mizzou Arena on March 1.

Since Oklahoma joined the SEC, the Sooners have dominated the return of the old Big-12 rivalry. Backed by a home crowd amidst an emotional rivalry matchup, a Quad 1 win could provide a crucial boost to Missouri's tournament resume.

Longshots

• LSU, No. 5 in the NET, in Baton Rouge, La. on Feb. 22

• South Carolina, No. 4 in the NET, in Columbia, S.C. on Feb. 26

Going into enemy territory at two of the most relentless environments in the country, backed by coaching legends Kim Mulkey and Dawn Staley, the Tigers and Gamecocks rank among the best teams in the nation. South Carolina is 13-0 while LSU is 11-1 in home games this season, meaning an upset would be a miracle and instantly stand out as a season-defining victory.

SEC Tournament

As mentioned, Missouri is currently slated for the 11th seed, but plenty of movement could occur between now and March 4, when the inter-conference bloodbath commences. If the Tigers are clinging to a spot on the right side of the bubble, they must win at least one game to ease their nerves for Selection Sunday. Alternatively, if Missouri is on the outside looking in, especially in the first or next four out, a strong tournament run could serve as a last-minute resume booster in an audition for the big dance.

In theory, Missouri could find itself cutting down the net at the end of the SEC Title game.However, those odds are slim to none. The lowest seed to win an SEC Tournament was 9th seeded Auburn in 1997, followed by Kentucky as a 7th seed in 2022. So, Missouri will likely need to do its heavy lifting down the final stretch of the regular season along with strong quality control in the SEC Tournament to go dancing.