Nebraska Football is Projected for Winning Season by ESPN Metrics

The Huskers rank 30th in the College Football Power Index, but that's just ninth-best in the 18-member Big Ten Conference.

Nebraska coach Matt Rhule has a challenging schedule that is ranked 20th most difficult in the nation. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Nebraska ranks 30th in the country in ESPN’s College Football Power Index for 2026. That sounds impressive in the enormity of the entire country. In the Big Ten, however, the Huskers are considered only the ninth-best team.

Here are ESPN’s CPI projections about the Huskers’ season, which given their difficult schedule could be a challenging one:

* Number of wins: 6.7
* Number of losses: 5.3
* Win-out chance: 0.0%
* Chance of reaching six wins: 74.5%
* Chance of winning the Big Ten: 0.7%
* Chance of making the College Football Playoff: 7.3%
* Chance of making the national championship game: 0.4%
* Chance of winning the national championship: 0.1%

So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

Nebraska’s strength of schedule ranks 20th in the country. Four Big Ten teams have more difficult schedules, according to FPI:

* Ohio State: 8th
* Michigan: 16th
* Northwestern: 17th
* USC: 19th

FPI gives the first 59 teams in its rankings a chance to make the national title game. That includes No. 59 San Diego State of — wait for it — the Pac-12. Ohio State (28.2%) and Texas (22.8%) have the best chance to advance to the championship game.

Ohio State has the best percentage to win the title at 17.1%, followed by Texas (13.2%) and Notre Dame (10.5%), Oregon (9.8%) and Georgia (9.0%.

Looking at Huskers’ projections

ESPN’s win projection is right on line with Bet MGM’s win prediction for the Huskers: 6.5 wins.

Consensus is strong that Nebraska’s win total will be in the six-to-seven range. That win total would put Matt Rhule’s Huskers in a bowl game for the third consecutive season. The Huskers were 7-6 the past two seasons.

Depending on your expectations about Nebraska, a six- or seven-win season might be relatively acceptable given a schedule that includes Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon. Eight wins might be a bridge too far?

Nebraska center Justin Evans talks with former assistant coach Donovan Raiola. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

If you think ESPN is showing confidence in the Huskers, maybe it’s because of new quarterback Anthony Colandrea, who will operate behind a retooled line anchored by center Justin Evans, with a new offensive line coach in Geep Wade. Rhule also hired a new defensive coordinator in Rob Aurich, who arrives with a solid body of work including his last two seasons at San Diego State.

Big Ten FPI rankings

Big Ten teams range from first to 71st in FPI. Nebraska’s 2026 opponents are noted.

* Ohio State: 1st (at Memorial Stadium, Nov. 21)
* Oregon: 4th (at Autzen Stadium, Oct. 17)
* Indiana: 6th (at Memorial Stadium, Oct. 10)
* USC: 13th
* Michigan: 15th
* Penn State: 17th
* Iowa: 25th (at Kinnick Stadium, Nov. 27)
* Washington: 26th (at Memorial Stadium, Oct. 31)
* Nebraska: 30th
* Illinois: 38th (at Gies Memorial Stadium, Nov. 7)
* Wisconsin: 43rd
* Northwestern: 60th
* Maryland: 61st (at Memorial Stadium, Oct. 3)
* Minnesota: 63rd
* UCLA: 64th
* Michigan State: 65th (at Spartan Stadium, Sept. 26)
* Rutgers: 67th (at SHI Stadium, Nov. 14)
* Purdue: 71st

Huskers’ 2025 FPI rankings

The Huskers ranked 44th in the index after last year’s regular season.

ESPN says its Football Power Index “measures team’s true strength based on net points scale, expected point margin vs. average opponent on neutral field.”

Nebraska’s 12 FPI rankings in 2025: 21, 21, 22, 23, 31, 34, 32, 31, 39, 44, 44 and 44. So, the Huskers are starting off in a better place — 30th — than they finished last season.

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