Three Reasons Why Nebraska Will Win; Three Reasons Why Nebraska Will Lose vs. Northwestern

Nebraska’s football season was rolling merrily along before last Friday night. The Huskers were 5-1 and a touchdown favorite at Minnesota.

Nebraska’s ambitious goals were still in sight. The Huskers hadn’t yet played that killer game — that nearly flawless game they believe they have in them — but they had five wins in six games. They had fought back from deficits against Michigan, Michigan State and Maryland and won two of them.

But they wanted no repeat of the 2024 season when they were 5-1 and promptly lost four consecutive games.

Somewhere in the back of their minds, that has to be a nagging thought. Was Minnesota — where the Huskers were defeated so thoroughly — the beginning of a losing trend they didn’t think was remotely possible a week ago?

Northwestern is Saturday’s opponent. The Wildcats are always ready for an upset, always ready to shock the Big Ten. The Wildcats have won four in a row and sit at an impressive 5-2, same as Nebraska.

For each game, we will give you three reasons the Huskers will win and three reasons they won’t. The Huskers are a 7.5-point favorite, a point spread that didn’t mean much against Minnesota. Given the opponent, those pesky Wildcats, this game feels like a one-possession affair. Maybe the team with ball last wins it.

Why Nebraska will win

The season is on the line

Nebraska believes it has improved this season compared to last season. Nebraska believes the program is trending in the right way, after years of decline.

Before the Minnesota debacle, the fans and media believed it, too. After that punishing loss, those feelings might have changed.

This week of preparation might have been the Huskers’ most important of the season. They had to get right, fix what was wrong and regroup.

Nebraska’s season, in many ways, is on the line. The Huskers will play like it.

Nebraska coach Matt Rhule knows his team's play has to improve the rest of the season, starting Saturday against Northwestern. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

“We better show up,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule angrily said at a news conference this week. “No, we WILL show up.”

Improved pass protection

When Dylan Raiola has time to throw, he is effective. In the Huskers’ two losses, Raiola was sacked 16 times — seven against Michigan, nine against Minnesota.

Last season, Raiola was sacked 27 times in 13 games. Through seven games in 2025, he has been sacked 25 times for a loss of 167 yards. This is a trend going the wrong way and not sustainable for a successful offense.

Nebraska ranks 131st nationally in sacks allowed.

Raiola has an effective and talented group of receivers — five of them have at least 20 receptions — but it is imperative that the quarterback gets a second to make decisions and throw the ball.

Even with protection issues, Nebraska ranks 17th nationally in passing yards per game at 291.4. The Huskers will face a Wildcats team that is the 18th-best pass defense in the country, allowing 168.6 yards per game.

Strength vs. strength. Just the way Nebraska likes it.

Time to define the Huskers’ season

Football teams never know what will be a defining moment of a season. Or, what will be the defining game of a season.

Nebraska is hoping it isn’t the Minnesota game.

It might or might not be the Northwestern game. If it turns out this game defines Northwestern’s season, oh boy. Gotta believe the Huskers won’t let that happen.

Why Northwestern will win

Matt Rhule distraction (again)

We presented this as a reason why Minnesota would win last week. Any reason that has changed?

National media members have predicted that Rhule will land the Penn State head-coaching job, replacing the fired James Franklin.

Some Nebraska players said after the Minnesota loss that they were focused and Rhule’s job situation did not distract them.

David Braun's Northwestern team has won four consecutive games heading into Saturday's game against Nebraska. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State still is out there. Expect Northwestern coach David Braun to drill this possible intrusion into the players’ heads.

Northwestern running game

The Wildcats average 190.1 yards on the ground, a considerable number, the 38th-best average in the nation.

Across the line will be the Huskers’ defense, which is ranked 87th in the nation and allows 156.3 yards per game. Stopping the run has been an issue all season with the Huskers. Minnesota rushed for 186 net yards against the Huskers.

Northwestern knows this is its entree to a victory.

So, yes, expect to see Northwestern running the ball, even when it’s a likely passing down. The Huskers remain the nation’s No. 1 pass defense, allowing 123 yards per game. Third-and-eight? Watch for the Wildcats to run.

Low-scoring game

Northwestern ranks fifth in the nation in time of possession at 33:54. The Wildcats average 22.7 points per game, 99th in the nation.

The Wildcats want to take the air out of the ball, keep the ball away from Raiola and the Nebraska offense.

This formula has worked for the Wildcats, who are 5-2 and a threat every week.

The winner: Nebraska wants to win, of course, but *needs* to win even more. Expect a tight game. Nebraska 27, Northwestern 23. Season record: 6-1.

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