Three reasons why Nebraska will win; three reasons why Nebraska will lose vs. Oregon

Here we go again, Nebraska faced with a high-drama game and another chance for a much-needed, big-time win.

Same with Oregon.

Who would have thought Oregon (3-2, 1-1) needed a win over Nebraska (5-1, 2-1) to regain credibility and standing in college football? That’s where we are. The Ducks, still dangerous, need a win Saturday night to keep their season afloat.

This time, there is added spice for Nebraska, namely former Huskers quarterback Dylan Raiola. He could start, despite getting benched in his last game.

Oregon starting quarterback Dante Moore has been ruled out. He suffered a concussion against USC on Sept. 26. That injury opened the door for Raiola.

Raiola transferred out of Lincoln after two years as the Huskers’ starting quarterback. When he wound up at Oregon, Husker fans quickly checked the 2026 schedule. And here we are.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning hasn’t yet said who would start at quarterback. He added to the intrigue on Thursday by saying fourth-stringer Akili Smith Jr., was competing to start against the Huskers. Smith’s dad was an outstanding quarterback at Oregon. Lanning might lean to Raiola given the background and circumstances.

Raiola, after a great performance in relief of Moore against USC, was atrocious last Saturday against UCLA — 6-of-19 for 43 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions — and wound up getting benched in the fourth quarter.

Nebraska has issues of its own. The Huskers are coming off a heartbreaking, 20-17 loss to defending national champion Indiana. The Hoosiers, who trailed 17-6 with 12 minutes to play, scored on two long touchdown passes to deny the Huskers the prestigious victory they so desperately seek.

Oregon quarterback Akili Smith Jr. throws a pass during the Ducks' spring game. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Will the Huskers regroup? Having Raiola on the other sideline has to help with motivation. Nebraska knows what a road win over Oregon will do to its psyche, season record and general well being. A win at Oregon could be the season-defining game for the Huskers, who still are looking for a signature win in Matt Rhule's three-plus seasons in Lincoln.

FanDuel has installed Oregon as a 7.5-point favorite. This is the second time Nebraska has been an underdog this season. The first time was Indiana.

Each week, we’ll give you three reasons why the Huskers will win and three reasons why the Huskers will lose. We’ll give you reasons even if the odds seem insurmountable either way.

Nebraska is ranked 33 in The Athletic 138; Oregon is ranked 24.

Why Nebraska will win

Dylan Raiola

The Huskers’ defense was outstanding against Indiana … except for those two long touchdown passes. They’ve had a week to figure that out. If Raiola starts, or gets significant playing time, you gotta figure the Huskers’ defense will play the game of the season against their old chum.

Nebraska defensive back Andrew Marshall tackles Cincinnati's Joe Royer last season. Huskers will be challenged by Oregon. — Nebraska defensive back Andrew Marshall tackles Cincinnati's Joe Royer last season. Huskers' defenders will be in the spotlight vs. Oergon's high-powered offense. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oregon just isn’t the same Oregon

Without Moore, especially, the Ducks don’t seem to have that same firepower.

Oregon is known for explosive plays, but year after year, it’s the running attack that fuels the Ducks and sets up the pass. This season, Oregon ranks 89th in the nation in rushing, averaging 142.8 yards per game.

Despite the quarterback turnover — third-stringer Brock Thomas replaced Raiola in the fourth quarter and led a comeback that fell short against UCLA — the Ducks still rank seventh in passing in the nation with 317 yards per game.

In overall offense, the Ducks rank 25th with 458.8 yards per game.

Oregon still is dangerous and Nebraska’s defense faces a second consecutive challenge. Any game against Oregon comes down to an opponent’s defense.

Nebraska’s offense

The Huskers rank 22nd in total offense at 461 yards per game — 53rd in passing (247.8) and 26th in rushing (213.8).

Oregon ranks 59th in total defense at 344.4 yards per game; 41st in rushing defense at 118.4 yards; and 93rd in passing defense at 226 yards per game.

Nebraska running back Jamal Rule could be a big factor against Oregon on Saturday night. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Nebraska can run the ball and should pound the rock against the Ducks. This could be a Jamal Rule game. That would leave quarterback Anthony Colandrea free to roam when necessary and pass when unexpected. A strong running attack opens up so much more in the passing attack. The Ducks have been vulnerable defending the run.

Why Oregon will win

The Ducks still are strong

Despite losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA, the Ducks remain potent. Before losing to UCLA, Oregon still was considered a likely College Football Playoff team.

With two losses, Oregon is desperate. The Ducks have no room for error.

The quarterback situation

With Moore ruled out of the game, the Ducks will turn to Raiola, Thomas or Smith. Unless there's a fifth-stringer that Lanning is infatuated with.

Raiola was the backup to Moore, so conventional wisdom says it will be Raiola.

“Of course, it’s going to be an emotional game for Dylan, being the place he came from,” Lanning told reporters in Eugene after Wednesday’s practice. “He’s going to do everything he can to make sure our team is in the best situation to have success this week and be prepared … I know he’ll do that because he’s a pro.”

After the Ducks lost to UCLA, Raiola took some of the blame for the defeat.

“I thought we had two great weeks of practice, great weeks of prep,” Raiola said. “Sometimes the ball doesn’t go your way sometimes, but you know, I got to do a better job of rallying the guys.

Nebraska defensive lineman Anthony Jones Jr. and his teammates contained Indiana's running attack last week. — Nebraska defensive lineman Anthony Jones Jr. and his teammates contained Indiana's running attack last week and might be needed to do the same against Oregon on Saturday night. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“And making a play or getting us going to flip a switch cuz, you know, it’s really one play away from going the other way. But, I mean, can’t turn the ball over.

“I was reckless with the ball today and you can’t win football games like that.”

These emotional reunion games can go either way. If the Ducks win, expect Raiola to have a big say. It’s the game of the year for him.

The dreaded red zone

Oregon moves the ball. When the Ducks get into the red zone, they score.

The Ducks are 22-of-23 in the red zone, tied for eighth in the nation. They have 18 touchdowns from the red zone.

Nebraska ranks 64th in red-zone defense. Opponents have scored on 10-of-12 attempts. A bright spot for the Huskers is that only six of the 12 have been touchdowns.

Oregon scoring touchdowns in the red zone could be a huge factor on Saturday night.

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