Three Reasons Why Nebraska Will Win, Three Reasons Why Nebraska Will Lose vs. Minnesota

Nebraska heads into Friday night’s game at Minnesota after a week of distractions that were no fault of its own.

There are interesting forces of nature at play this week: Can the Huskers finally knock off the Gophers? And will Penn State coaching search affect the Huskers? BetMGM lists the Huskers as a 7.5-point favorite.

When Penn State fired James Franklin on Sunday, the immediate speculation was that Nebraska coach Matt Rhule would be one of the Nittany Lions’ prime candidates. Distracting? We’ll see.

Defeating Minnesota, without any Penn State interference, has evaded the Huskers recently. Minnesota has defeated Nebraska in five consecutive meetings and in six of seven. Rhule hopes to become the first Huskers coach to win at Minnesota since 2015, when Mike Riley defeated the Gophers, 48-25.

Nebraska finished 6-7 that season.

For each game, we will give you three reasons the Huskers will win and three reasons they won’t. Nebraska is 5-1, 2-1 in the Big Ten. Minnesota is 4-2, 2-1. Eight Big Ten teams are 2-1 in the conference and a ninth team, USC, is 3-1. That is a major logjam.

Winning games is the way forward for one of these teams. As the season rolls into the second half, separation among the conference winners and losers will become apparent. A team or two will be at the top of the second tier in the Big Ten — below Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon, but ahead of all of the current one-loss teams.

Why Nebraska will win

Huskers’ offense

Led by quarterback Dylan Raiola and running back Emmett Johnson, the 25th-ranked Huskers are fifth in the Big Ten in total offense.

When the Huskers are clicking, they pose great difficulties for a defense. When given time to pass, Raiola has been extremely effective.

From huskers.com: “Nebraska is one of four schools in the country to have a player ranked in the top 20 nationally in rushing yards per game (Johnson) and passing yards per game (Raiola). The other three schools are Baylor, Rutgers and USC.”

Some of the credit for winning the Maryland game should belong to Johnson, who gained 176 yards on 21 carries. He leads the conference with 105 rushing attempts. He has 650 yards and seven touchdowns. He also has caught 24 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown.

The Gophers rank eighth in the conference in total defense. But the Huskers’ variety on offense will be too much for the Gophers to stop.

Nebraska's emphasis on tackling

Nebraska defensive coordinator John Butler was asked at a news conference this week about the Huskers’ tackling against Maryland.

“We knew we were going to play a little bit more zone against Maryland just because we thought … that would affect the quarterback [Malik Washington] a little more,” Butler said.

“We knew we were going to have to tackle them and their receivers were big and strong. I think Ceyair [Wright] did a good job at times making tackles but we did miss a few early in the game to allow them to continue drives. But it’s just something that we’re always going to continue working on.”

Sure tackling is one of the best ways to stop opponent’s drives. Poor tackling seems to be an epidemic in college football. The Huskers rank fifth in the Big Ten in total defense. Minnesota’s offense ranks 15th (out of 18) in the conference. Minnesota has averaged only 65 rushing yards against Power 4 teams this season. That isn’t going to cut it against Nebraska.

It’s time

Nebraska’s five straight losses to Minnesota, and six of seven, is almost inconceivable. This game has to be a Nebraska target — along with Iowa, presumably — and the combination of the added focus and Nebraska’s superior talent on both sides of the ball should prevail.

Why Minnesota will win

Matt Rhule distraction

No one knows the answer to whether the Huskers will be affected by all of the Matt Rhule-to-Penn State talk. Raiola said: “He ain’t going nowhere.”

The answer probably won’t come until after the game. If Nebraska is flat or plays poorly, maybe the answer is yes, the Huskers were distracted.

Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck has won five consecutive games against Nebraska. | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck, a master motivator, is undoubtedly using this Rhule speculation to convince the Gophers they have an edge on Friday night. It could work. Fleck also will work the Gophers’ recent domination of Nebraska.

Drake Lindsey

The redshirt freshman has been outstanding. He’s 113-of-188 (60.1 percent) for 1,284 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Pro Football Focus says Lindsay’s offensive grade of 82.5 is the 13th best in the nation and fourth best in the Big Ten among quarterbacks who has as many dropbacks as he does. He has dropped back 199 times.

A big game from Lindsey could shock the Huskers.

Running the ball

Butler believes the Gophers will try to run the ball. Minnesota might not have a choice. The Huskers remain No. 1 in the nation in pass defense, allowing 118 yards per game.

Nebraska’s pass defense was roughed up last week by Maryland freshman Malik Washington. Things will go smoother for Minnesota if it can run the ball some. Plus, some run game might open up some passing lanes and help hold off the Huskers’ quarterback pressures.

The winner

Nebraska has not looked dominant in Big Ten games but the Huskers are 5-1, 2-1. Nebraska realistically can see, out there on the horizon, a path to a College Football Playoff berth. To reach that goal, Nebraska cannot afford a loss — now or the rest of the way.

Nebraska 34, Minnesota 20.

Season record: 6-1.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More From Nebraska On SI

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.