College Football Roundup: Week 13 Finally Serves As Separation Saturday
The top dictionary definition of the word “rival” is “one of two or more striving to reach or obtain something that only one can possess.”
However, in the context of Rivalry Week – the final regular season weekend in college football – I think a better definition of rival, or more specifically rivalry, is “when these two teams meet on the field, no one has a clue what’s going to happen”.
Rivalry Weekend separated the contenders from the pretenders and in the on-field craziness we saw four teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC all (deserve to) control their own destinies, while Alabama and Ohio State are left waiting for a slip-up for a chance to sneak back into the College Football Playoff field.
MICHIGAN 45, OHIO STATE 23
Michigan punched its ticket to the College Football Playoff with a dominant win over Ohio State in Columbus. Ohio State controlled the first quarter as Michigan struggled to get its ground attack going with Blake Corum limited, but the Wolverines used big plays to hang around in the game during the first half. QB JJ McCarthy hit WR Cornelius Johnson for long touchdown passes on back-to-back drives to keep Michigan in the game, but the Wolverines still trailed 20-17 heading into the break.
However, the second half looked like a repeat of last season’s matchup, as RB Donovan Edwards ran wild against Jim Knowles’ Buckeye defense, the Wolverines pressured Ohio State QB CJ Stroud into multiple mistakes, and outscored Ohio State 28-3 in the final two quarters to pull away for a dominant victory. With the win, Michigan will play for a second straight Big Ten title on Saturday against Purdue, while Ohio State will be rooting hard for Kansas State and Utah in their matchups next week.
USC 38, NOTRE DAME 27
USC used the formula that had worked all season to pull out an impressive victory over Notre Dame. Caleb Williams had another a brilliant performance, and he was aided by 154 yards on the ground from RB Austin Jones and an opportunistic USC defense that forced 2 Notre Dame turnovers. The Trojans scored on their opening possession, led 17-7 at halftime, and extended the lead to 24-7 by converting a Notre Dame fumble on the opening possession of the second half into points.
With the victory, coupled with Ohio State and LSU losses, USC will move into CFP Playoff position. Their only remaining obstacle is a rematch with a tough Utah team who dealt the Trojans their only loss of the season, a 43-42 setback in Salt Lake City. Should the presumptive seeds hold, a matchup of Williams against the stout Georgia defense would be must-see TV.
WEEKEND HIGHLIGHTS
~ Texas A&M notched a massive 38-23 victory over LSU in College Station on Saturday, denying Brian Kelly a chance at a CFP berth in his first season in Baton Rouge. LSU will still play Georgia for the SEC Championship but given how the Tigers have played in recent weeks, that one could get ugly.
~ Mississippi State turned away a game-tying two-point conversion attempt to pull out a 24-22 victory in the Egg Bowl over Ole Miss. The biggest news in the Magnolia State this weekend though was Lane Kiffin’s announcement that he would be staying in Oxford.
~ TCU left no doubt with a 62-14 victory over Iowa State. The Cyclones came into the game with the top defense in the Big 12, but the Horned Frogs scored early and often, never giving Iowa State a chance.
~ South Carolina continued playing spoiler with a 31-30 comeback victory over a mistake-prone Clemson team. The Gamecocks overcame an early 14-0 hole by limiting Tiger QB DJ Uiagalelei to just 8-29 passing for 99 yards. This offseason will be an interesting one at Clemson.
~ Both teams will head into the ACC Championship Game off losses as North Carolina dropped its second game in a row to in-state rival NC State. The Tar Heels trailed much of the game and even late heroics from QB Drake Maye couldn’t overcome special teams miscues, as the Heels fell 30-27 on a missed field goal in double overtime.
~ Oregon State trailed 31-10 late in the third quarter but rallied for a 38-34 victory over archrival Oregon, denying the Ducks a chance to play for the Pac-12 title.
~ UCF blew a 31-7 lead against 1-11 USF and needed a touchdown with 20 seconds left (on an incredible one-handed catch by Alec Holler) to pull out a 46-39 victory over USF and book a trip to the American Championship Game in New Orleans against Tulane next weekend.
~ UTSA overcame a 24-0 first half deficit behind 382 passing yards and 3 touchdowns from Frank Harris, locking up a spot against North Texas in next weekend’s Conference USA championship.
McDONOUGH’S MUSINGS
~ If I had to describe Ohio State’s defensive gameplan against Michigan in one word, it would be “arrogant”. The Buckeyes came into the game expecting to enact some payback on a Wolverine team that they did not think matched up athletically with them. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles continually left his corners in one-on-one matchups, and on multiple Michigan touchdowns had every defender lined up within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage. The result was big play after big play, as an offense that put up just 19 points against Illinois last week torched the Buckeyes for 45. Knowles was brought in to fix the Buckeye defense, and through the first 11 games he had been successful, but this was a major, major step back. JJ McCarthy completed just 50% of his passes and when Ohio State actually dropped back and played coverage, they got pressure on him. However, rather than playing to grind out a win, drive after drive they played for a knockout punch which never came, while allowing McCarthy to attack them over the top.
~ With the regular season coming to an end Saturday, the coaching carousel is already in full swing. I don’t think we will see the craziness we saw last season with so much turnover at the blue bloods, but as of writing, here are already the rumored and confirmed changes in the Power Five.
- Matt Rhule – Nebraska
- Grade – A
- Nebraska secured a proven program builder with Rhule, as he previously turned around moribund Temple and Baylor programs before heading to the NFL. The only word of caution in Lincoln is that Scott Frost also seemed like a no-brainer, but we know how that turned out.
- Luke Fickell – Wisconsin
- Grade – C+
- Fickell has built a winning program at Cincinnati and has deep Midwestern ties but will be an outsider in a very insular state, has the task of replacing 2 local sons in Paul Chryst and interim head coach Jim Leonhard, and you have to think still sees this job a steppingstone to his dream job at Ohio State.
- Hugh Freeze – Auburn
- Grade – C+
- Freeze has won everywhere he’s been, but comes with considerable baggage from his time at Ole Miss. This grade would be higher if not for the fact that a coach surrounded by drama is taking over a program surrounded by drama. The ceiling is high – but the floor is low.
- Kenny Dillingham – Arizona State
- Grade – C
- The 32-year-old Dillingham will become the youngest Power Five coach when he takes over an Arizona State program at his alma mater that should be better than it is. The ASU administration went in the complete opposite direction from the experienced Herm Edwards, but will they have the necessary patience if it takes Dillingham a few years to learn on the job?
- Deion Sanders – Colorado
- Grade – A
- This one isn’t official yet, but rumors are that Colorado has officially offered the job to Sanders and he is interested. If the Buffaloes can pull this off, this would be a major coup for a program that has become an afterthought in the past 2 decades.
~ David Shaw resigned after 12 seasons at Stanford this weekend, having compiled a career record of 96-54. Shaw built on the foundation established by Jim Harbaugh to find success on The Farm. However, recent struggles (the Cardinal’s last winning full season was in 2018) called into question both Shaw and the school’s commitment to football. This next hire will be very telling. With the Pac-12 conference at a crossroads with the purported departures of USC and (if approved by the California Board of Regents) UCLA, the Cardinal stand on the brink of irrelevancy with the wrong hire or a continued lack of institutional commitment to the sport.
~ With his clutch performance against Notre Dame, Caleb Williams should have locked up the Heisman Trophy. This has been one of the more wide-open races in recent memory, with no clear front-runner heading into the final month of the season. However, Williams had his Heisman moment at the expense of the Irish and barring a complete collapse in the Pac-12 Championship, he will hoist the hardware in New York in December.
~ There’s no greater example of the boom in analytics sweeping the sport than the frequency that teams are going for fourth down conversions. However, the famous phrase from basketball comes to mind – “live by the 3; die by the 3”. In Saturday’s 38-34 loss to Oregon State, Oregon went 0-5 on fourth down, a big reason that the Beavers were able to overcome a 31-10 deficit in the last 18 minutes of the game. Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness was a big reason the Ducks went on a run after getting blown out by Georgia, but in losses to Washington and now Oregon State, the inability to convert fourth downs in minus territory led to easy scores for the opposition. It will be interesting to see if Lanning moderates his aggressive approach in his second season in Eugene next year.
STOCK UP
~ Michigan – The Wolverines are all but assured of a second straight CFP berth after Saturday’s win against Ohio State, even if they lose the Big Ten Championship against Purdue. The best development from Saturday for the Wolverines has to be the emergence of QB JJ McCarthy. The sophomore QB from Chicago played his best game of the season on Saturday when Michigan needed it most. McCarthy only completed 50% of his passes, but his 12 completions went for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also continually extended plays with his legs, chipping in 27 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Most importantly, he did not turn the ball over. If McCarthy can continue that success through the air, this Michigan team is poised to make some noise in the CFP.
~ TCU – You know that the CFP committee is itching to jump Ohio State or even Alabama back in over TCU, but in a classic trap game TCU had arguably its best performance of the season. Coming off an emotional win over Baylor with a spot in the Big 12 Championship already clinched, the Horned Frogs took on an Iowa State team that entered with the top defense in the Big 12 in all major statistical categories. TCU never even gave the Cyclones a chance, scoring on their opening possession, using a pick-six to build a 24-0 lead, and eventually rolling to a 62-14 victory that could have been even worse. A rematch with Kansas State – whom TCU defeated 38-28 on October 22nd – is that all remains between the Horned Frogs and a date in the CFP.
~ Tulane – The Green Wave put an exclamation point on their best season since Rich Rodriguez was calling plays for Shaun King with a 27-24 victory over Cincinnati at Nippert Stadium, a place the Bearcats had won 32 games in a row. With the victory, Tulane clinches a berth in the American Championship game and a rematch with UCF in New Orleans. Beat the Knights, and Tulane will head to the Cotton Bowl.
~ Oregon State – The Beavers trailed 31-10 with 3 minutes left in the third quarter, but used a combination of physicality, Oregon miscues (like the punter dropping a snap on the 2-yard line), and a little bit of luck to storm back for a 38-34 victory in rivalry formerly known as “The Civil War”. The Beavers completed just 6 passes, were outgained 470-328, and lost the turnover battle 3-0, but hey, this is Rivalry Week. Oregon State doesn’t play a pretty brand of football, but former Beaver QB Jonathan Smith has this program going in the right direction at one of the toughest Power Five jobs in the country to recruit to.
~ USC – With the 38-27 victory over Notre Dame, the Trojans are one win away from ending the Pac-12 playoff drought which stretches back to 2016. USC is the poster child for the new era of college football, with the Trojans eschewing the development approach in favor of the checkbook, and it’s paid off. Lincoln Riley deserves credit for building a winning culture in his first season. Of course, it also helps to have the best player in college football in QB Caleb Williams.
STOCK DOWN
~ The ACC – The weekend got off to a rough start for the conference with North Carolina dropping a second consecutive game and only got worse, with Clemson blowing a 14-point lead – and any hope of a CFP berth – in a 31-30 home loss to South Carolina. The ACC will be shut out of the playoff for the second consecutive year and its premier program, Clemson, is at a crossroads. Dabo Swinney has made it clear that he doesn’t play the transfer portal/NIL game, but this is a team in need of some fresh blood. With so much coordinator turnover the past few seasons, Swinney may need to make some tough decisions and have a quick hook with some former players on the coaching staff.
~ LSU – Ohio State’s loss to Michigan opened the door for LSU to become the first team with 2 losses to make the CFP, but Brian Kelly did not have his team ready to play a mediocre opponent and the Tigers fell 38-23 to Texas A&M. The Aggies had been the only Power Five team to not top 30 points on the season against another Power Five opponent but had no trouble ending that streak against LSU. With a date against Georgia in the SEC Championship and a tough opponent in a marquee bowl, a 5-loss season for LSU is very much in play.
~ Iowa – The path was simple. Beat Nebraska – something the Hawkeyes had done 7 years in a row – and secure an improbable berth in the Big Ten Championship. Instead, Iowa fell behind 24-0 against an inspired Cornhusker team and fell short in the comeback bid led by backup QB Alex Padilla. The loss allowed Purdue to clinch a matchup with Michigan and ushered in an offseason of questions in Iowa City. Can Kirk Ferentz make the staff changes required for this team to compete in the modern game, even if those changes have to start with his son?
~ Ryan Day – After Jim Harbaugh’s comment after last season’s Michigan victory over Ohio State that “some people are born on third base and think they hit a triple,” you know this year’s matchup was personal for Ryan Day. Despite having a 45-5 career record, Day hasn’t quite been able to step out of Urban Meyer’s imposing shadow, and Saturday’s matchup with Michigan was the perfect opportunity to put his stamp on the program. He did – but it wasn’t the stamp he wanted to make. Ohio State was physically dominated at the line of scrimmage for the second consecutive season, made uncharacteristic mistakes, and appeared disinterested at the end of the game. Day isn’t on the hot seat, but he needs to take back control of this rivalry or risk becoming a modern-day John Cooper.
~ Cincinnati – Without starting QB Ben Bryant, Cincinnati fell 27-24 to Tulane, meaning the Bearcats will miss a chance to defend their American title. However, the bigger news for the program came on Sunday, with reports that head coach Luke Fickell will depart to take over at Wisconsin. Cincinnati will need to get this next hire right, as with the transition to the Big 12, the Bearcats are going from being a big fish in a small pond to a small fish in a big pond. Even with Texas and Oklahoma leaving for the SEC, the Bearcats will enter the Big 12 lagging behind much of their new conference brethren in facilities and program infrastructure. You can win at Cincinnati – the city has one of the best concentrations of high school football talent in the country – but AD John Cunningham needs to find someone who can connect with local high school coaches while also continue to grow the school’s national presence.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP SCHEDULE
Note – AP rankings used as they reflect this weekend’s results
- Friday, December 2nd
- Conference USA – North Texas vs. #23 UTSA, 7:30 PM, CBSSN (San Antonio, TX)
- Pac-12 – #12 Utah vs. #4 USC, 8 PM, FOX (Las Vegas, NV)
- Saturday, December 3rd
- Big 12 – #13 Kansas State vs. #3 TCU, 12 PM, ABC (Arlington, TX)
- MAC – Toledo vs. Ohio, 12 PM, ESPN (Detroit, MI)
- Sun Belt – Coastal Carolina at Troy, 3:30 PM, ESPN (Troy, AL)
- SEC – #11 LSU vs. #1 Georgia, 4 PM, CBS (Atlanta, GA)
- Mountain West – Fresno State at Boise State, 4 PM, FOX (Boise, ID)
- American – #22 UCF at #18 Tulane, 4 PM, ABC (New Orleans, LA)
- ACC – #10 Clemson vs. #24 North Carolina, 8 PM, ABC (Charlotte, NC)
- Big Ten – Purdue vs. #2 Michigan, 8 PM, FOX (Indianapolis, IN)
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