Irish Breakdown

ESPN's Final Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia and College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

After all of the lead up and injury news, ESPN FPI has its final prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Nick Shepkowski|
Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; A general view of the College Football Playoff logo on a case on the Washington Huskies sideline before the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game between the Texas Longhorns and the Washington Huskies at Caesars Superdome.
Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; A general view of the College Football Playoff logo on a case on the Washington Huskies sideline before the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game between the Texas Longhorns and the Washington Huskies at Caesars Superdome. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

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Notre Dame Fighting IrishOregon DucksOhio State BuckeyesPenn State Nittany LionsGeorgia BulldogsTexas LonghornsArizona State Sun DevilsBoise State Broncos

Game time for the 2025 Sugar Bowl is approaching and just about everything that can be stated has been stated before kickoff.

But with that said, let's take a look at just one more thing.

Shortly after Notre Dame disposed of Indiana in the First Round of the College Football Playoff, we took a look at ESPN's computer model for predictions, their Football Power Index (FPI).

The initial look gave Notre Dame a 56.1% chance at victory while giving Georgia a win 43.9% of the time.

After the final injury reports have been announced and the small chance of Carson Beck playing officially being squashed, those numbers have been updated.

As of 4:15 p.m. ET on New Year's Eve 2024, Notre Dame remains the pick from FPI, but by less of a percentage.

Final Notre Dame vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl ESPN FPI Odds

Notre Dame chances of victory: 53.9% (down 2.2%)

Georgia chances of victory: 46.1% (up 2.2%)

ESPN FPI National Championship Odds

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Indiana
Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half against Indiana. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With just eight teams remaining in the College Football Playoff and only hours remaining until the start of the quarterfinals when Boise State battles Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, here are the latest odds of winning the national championship according to ESPN's FPI formula.

8. Arizona State: 1.2%
7. Boise State: 1.3%
6. Oregon: 7.7%
5. Penn State: 12.1%
4. Georgia: 12.9%
3. Ohio State: 17.3%
2. Notre Dame: 20.2%
1. Texas: 27.2%

College Football Playoff: ESPN FPI Quarterfinal Odds

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day and Oregon head coach Dan Lanning before the Rose Bow
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, right, and Ohio State head coach Ryan Day pose for a photo during the coaches press conference in Los Angeles Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024, ahead of the Rose Bowl. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Fiesta Bowl Odds: Penn State vs. Boise State - 7:30 p.m. ET, Dec. 31, 2024

Penn State chances of victory: 65.3%
Boise State chances of victory: 34.7%

Peach Bowl Odds: Arizona State vs. Texas - 12:00 p.m. ET, Jan. 1, 2025

Arizona State chances of victory: 20.5%
Texas chances of victory: 79.5%

Rose Bowl Odds: Oregon vs. Ohio State - 4:00 p.m. ET, Jan. 1, 2025

Oregon chances of victory: 46.3%
Ohio State chances of victory: 53.7%

Sugar Bowl Odds: Georgia vs. Notre Dame - 8:45 p.m. ET, Jan. 1, 2025

Notre Dame chances of victory: 53.9%
Georgia chances of victory: 46.1%

More from Notre Dame on Sports Illustrated

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Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard Scouts Georgia Defense Ahead of Sugar Bowl

Urban Meyer Makes His Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl

Kirby Smart Breaks Down Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman Ahead of Sugar Bowl

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Published
Nick Shepkowski
NICK SHEPKOWSKI

Managing Editor for Notre Dame On SI. Started covering Chicago sports teams for WSCR the Score, and over the years worked with CBS Radio, Audacy, NBC Sports, and FOX Sports as a contributor before running the Notre Dame wire site for USA TODAY.

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