Game Predictions: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
The biggest matchup of the opening weekend - and possibly the season - is Saturday night's battle between the #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes.
We've broken down the game all week and now it is time for the Irish Breakdown staff to make their predictions for the game.
BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Ohio State 26
I just couldn't do it. My head knows about the matchups. It knows about the difficulty to go on the road and beat a team as good as Ohio State. It knows that is even harder when you're basically going into the first game of Marcus Freeman's tenure. It knows the program's poor track record in such games.
My head knows that Ohio State should be the pick.
But I just can't, and it's not just emotion that has me picking the Fighting Irish. Look, Notre Dame is a talented football team and I've believed for a long time they were being held back. That road block is gone, so the question is how quickly can Freeman erase the bad vibes and culture that existed when he took over.
So let's talk about the football reasons I'm picking the Irish. Ohio State hardly blew the pants off the good teams they played last season. Having a dynamic quarterback like Tyler Buchner, running an offense that I don't think Ohio State will be quite as prepared for, is advantage Notre Dame. I'm a believer in the Notre Dame offensive line, and the Irish have the speed to give Ohio State problems. The Irish skill talent will rip off enough big plays to allow the Irish to run with Ohio State early, and the offensive line wears the Buckeyes out late.
On defense, the Irish are going to give up yards. Everyone gives up yards to this Ohio State team. As you can see by my score prediction, I have both teams scoring six times, but the difference is the Irish defense will make stops in the red zone, forcing Ohio State to settle for a lot of field goals, while the Irish offense will push it past the goal line with greater frequency.
It will be a 60-minute battle, but I just can't bet against Notre Dame, I think they get the job done.
RYAN ROBERTS, RECRUITING DIRECTOR
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Ohio State 31
The Marcus Freeman era gets off to a hot start in their season opener against Ohio State, going on the road and leaving the Horseshoe with a 34-31 victory. The team is led by quarterback Tyler Buchner, who accounts for four total touchdowns in the victory.
Notre Dame got off to a fast start before Ohio State mounted a comeback in the fourth quarter. The Irish are able to hold them off at the end and escape the opener with a tremendous victory.
SEAN STIRES, STAFF WRITER
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 31
We’ve talked enough about this game that we could write a book at this point, but let’s boil it down to a few sentences. No matter how heavily the Buckeyes are favored, this is still a season opener and that alone brings enough unknown factors to make things interesting. Case in point, the 38 points a good Irish defense gave up to Florida State in last year’s opener. The Seminoles only reached that total one more time last season.
After rushing for just 143.8 yards per game and 4.1 per carry last year, can the Irish run game get going against the revamped Jim Knowles-led OSU defense? How will Tyler Buchner do under pressure? Not just the road environment, but what does he look like on money downs when everyone knows he HAS TO complete a pass? Can Notre Dame’s defense get pressure on Buckeye quarterback CJ Stroud against a line that only allowed 17 sacks last season? They’ll have to in order to take pressure off the Irish secondary.
In the end, Notre Dame will make this closer than many think possible, but Ohio State will come out on top.
VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 28
The wait is finally over. We get to actually see some real football instead of talking and prognosticating about it for the last eight or so months. On top of that, this is the game we have all been talking about since before the Fiesta Bowl. This is going to be the biggest test of the year for Marcus Freeman and his entire program. In order to pull off this upset they are going to have to be firing on all cylinders for the majority of the game.
I am very confident in the play of first time QB Tyler Buchner. I think OC Tommy Rees will have an inspired game plan. I think Al Golden will bring some defensive wrinkles we are not prepared for. I do expect ND to play very well on Saturday night. I am just not quite confident enough to pick them as a winner. I hope that I am wrong. The Irish have all the pieces they need and I think they will execute at a high level. There are not many teams in the country I would pick Notre Dame to lose to but unfortunately Ohio State is one of them. The location of this game is also a major factor in my decision.
ANDREW McDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Ohio State 31
As someone who grew up in Columbus before moving out of the scarlet and gray bubble in high school, I’ve been to more than a few games at the Horseshoe. It’s big and it’s loud – especially at night. That being said, over the past decade, Ohio State has only played two non-conference home games against Top 25 opponents – and the Buckeyes lost both (2017 against Oklahoma and 2021 against Oregon).
However, listening to the media over the past month, you’d be forgiven for thinking this Buckeye team was a cross of the 2019 LSU offense and the 2021 Georgia defense. And don’t even get me started on the point spread, which opened with the Buckeyes as 14.5-point favorites before ballooning to as high as 17.5 at one point. As wise gamblers know – fade the public perception.
Ohio State has a dynamic offense, but also lost two first round draft picks at wide receiver. It’s one thing to “reload”, but it’s another thing to replace the production, field awareness and impact that Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson had on defenses, not least of which was the fact that Jaxon Smith-Njigba got to see single coverage all season.
On the other side of the ball, the Buckeye defense was mediocre last year, giving up 31 points to Minnesota, 35 to Oregon, 31 to Purdue, 42 to Michigan and 45 to Utah. They will be better under a new defensive staff, but it’s a tall ask for Jim Knowles to shut down an athletic and physical Irish offense in game 1.
Here's what I expect. The physical, proud Notre Dame defense will find ways to get pressure on CJ Stroud and get him off his base, where he was much less effective last year. According to data from The Analyst, in the pocket, Stroud had a “pickable pass percentage” (PKP) of just 1.49%. However, under pressure, that number jumped to 5.26%, and when Stroud was “out of design”, the percentage was even higher at 7.29%. Ohio State is a good enough offense that they will score points, but the ability of the Irish to bring pressure with Isaiah Foskey and company will allow ND to make stops and force at least two turnovers.
With the defense limiting Ohio State just enough, it will be up to the offense, and this is where Harry Hiestand will prove his importance. I expect to see a much different Irish offensive line this year. The physical Notre Dame front will both give Tyler Buchner the time he needs to find a rhythm and settle into the game, while also opening gaps for the running backs to exploit.
Football games are still won at the line of scrimmage, and with Notre Dame having the stronger lines on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, the Irish will find a way to win a thriller as Marcus Freeman makes a major statement against his alma mater in his first regular season game as Notre Dame head coach. Wake up the echoes!
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