Notre Dame And Preseason Expectations Haven't Always Meshed
Notre Dame had an interesting relationship with preseason rankings during the Brian Kelly era, and we are about to find out if that will be the same with Marcus Freeman now in charge.
Over the previous 12 years there were several years when the Irish went in with no expectations, or low expectations, and they flourished. In other years a highly ranked Notre Dame team fell short of the preseason expectations .... sometimes well short.
Let's take a look at Notre Dame through the Kelly years and where the Irish are heading into 2022.
2010
Preseason: Unranked
Final: 8-5 – Unranked
Quarterback Dayne Crist started the first game of Kelly’s Notre Dame tenure. Tommy Rees started the last game of the season – a Sun Bowl win over Miami. Kelly’s Fighting Irish played the second-hardest schedule in the nation in 2010, but losses to Navy and Tulsa were not expected to be among Notre Dame’s five setbacks in Kelly’s debut. The loss to Tulsa came after Kelly opted to throw to the end zone (and a resulting interception) rather than set-up a potential game-winning field goal inside the 20 yard line with less than 45 seconds left.
At one point Notre Dame was 4-5, but Rees led the Irish to four straight victories to salvage the season, including a 28-3 win over No. 15 Utah.
2011
Preseason: #16 AP/ #18 Coaches
Final: 8-5 – Unranked
Brian Kelly’s second season at Notre Dame began with, arguably, one of his two worst losses. The Skip Holtz-led South Florida Bulls beat Kelly’s Irish 23-20 in their only game in Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame’s five turnovers, including a fumble that was returned 96 yards for a touchdown just four minutes into the season, were a harbinger of a season that saw the Irish commit 19 of its 29 turnovers in its five losses.
Notre Dame blew a 24-7 fourth quarter lead in a loss to Michigan, fumbled the ball inside the five-yard line on a potential game-tying drive against USC and blew a 14-3 fourth quarter lead in the Champs Sports Bowl to Florida State. Notre Dame had four first round picks and five second or third round picks on that squad.
2012
Preseason: Unranked AP/ #24 Coaches
Final: 12-1 - #4 AP/#3 Coaches
A year after the Irish fell woefully short of preseason expectations the script got flipped in 2012. A season that began with relatively low expectations and a win over Navy in Dublin, Ireland ended with a BCS Championship Game loss to Alabama in the Orange Bowl. Along the way, linebacker Manti Te’o turned into a Heisman Trophy finalist who won the Lott, Maxwell, Bednarik, Bronco Nagurski, Butkus, Lombardi, and Walter Camp awards.
An October road win over Oklahoma included 215 rushing yards for Notre Dame, while the Sooners mustered just 15 ground yards against the Te’o-led stout defense. Also key to Notre Dame's success that season was a win over Stanford, who finished the season ranked #6 (Coaches) and #7 (AP), and who had defeated the Irish in the previous three seasons.
2013
Preseason: #14 AP/#11 Coaches
Final: 9-4 - #20 AP/#24 Coaches
The Irish went into the 2013 season with much higher expectations thanks to its BCS title game run. Once again the Irish failed to live up to those expectations. Rees was elevated to full-time starting quarterback after Everett Golson was suspended from Notre Dame for an academic violation. Rees threw for 3,257 yards and 27 touchdowns in a season that ended with a Pinstripe Bowl win over Rutgers.
A road loss to Michigan dropped the Irish down and a 14-point home loss to Oklahoma knocked Notre Dame out of the rankings. They briefly got back in after four straight wins, including one over a ranked Arizona State team, but Notre Dame blew a pair of leads in a road loss to Pittsburgh and once again lost to Stanford, who beat Kelly five out of seven times to start his tenure.
2014
Preseason: #17 AP/#17 Coaches
Final: 8-5 – Unranked
A 6-0 start to the season, which included a 31-0 trouncing of Michigan, skyrocketed the Fighting Irish up to as high as No. 5 in the national polls in Brian VanGorder’s first season as defensive coordinator. Notre Dame went on the road and came within a questionable fourth quarter pick penalty away from beating the defending national champion Florida State Seminoles.
Then, the bottom fell out.
Notre Dame lost five of its last six games to end the regular season, allowing 41 points a game in the process. That included an overtime home loss to a Northwestern team that went 5-7, a home loss to Louisville and an embarrassing 49-14 loss to USC. They snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-28 win over LSU in the Music City Bowl to somewhat salvage the season.
2015
Preseason: #11 AP/#11 Coaches
Final: 10-3 - #11 AP/#12 Coaches
This was the first season of Kelly's tenure when they entered with somewhat high expectations and finished around its expected ranking.
Notre Dame started the season off with an impressive 38-3 pasting of Texas, but by the end of the second game of the season the Irish were without their starting quarterback (Malik Zaire), running back (Tarean Folston), tight end (Durham Smythe), nose guard (Jarron Jones) and nickel (Shaun Crawford), and a key player in Drue Tranquill.
An overtime loss to eventual national runner up Clemson was Notre Dame's only blemish as the Irish started off 10-1. It blew a last minute lead to Stanford before falling to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. To make matters worse, the lingering legacy of that game is the gruesome knee injury that cost Jaylon Smith being a high first-round NFL draft pick.
2016
Preseason: #10 AP/#9 Coaches
Final: 4-8 – Unranked
Notre Dame went into 2016 with the highest preseason rankings of the Kelly era, but the season was all but over one game in. Notre Dame started the season with DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire splitting reps at quarterback. The timeshare didn’t last and neither did any semblance of a sound season.
The Irish lost three games to ACC teams this season. including a home loss to 4-8 Duke and a loss to Virginia Tech in which the Irish blew a 24-7 lead. Notre Dame also lost at home to a 3-9 Michigan State team. Notre Dame lost just one game (Miami, 2017) to an ACC team not named Clemson in the five seasons since.
The only good thing to come of this season was defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder being jettisoned midseason and the eventual purge of the coaching staff that sparked a 54-9 record in the five ensuing seasons.
2017
Preseason: Unranked
Final: 10-3 - #11 AP/#11 Coaches
This began a stretch of three years out of four in which Notre Dame surpassed its preseason expectations. A revamped coaching staff included new coordinators in all facets. Mike Elko was hired from Wake Forest to lead the defense (along with unknown linebackers coach Clark Lea). Chip Long took the helm as offensive coordinator, Brian Polian returned to Notre Dame as special teams coach after four years as head coach at Nevada and Matt Balis took over as Director of Football Performance.
A mauling offensive line, led by eventual top-10 NFL draft picks Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey, paved the way for a rushing attack that averaged 269.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry, with Josh Adams and first-year quarterback Brandon Wimbush combining for 2,233 rushing yards.
The Irish narrowly lost 20-19 to eventual national runner up Georgia in week two, but a lopsided loss at Miami two months later knocked the Irish out of College Football Playoff contention. Ian Book came off the bench to connect with Miles Boykin on a 55-yard touchdown pass to complete a 21-17 comeback win over LSU in the Citrus bowl to cap the season.
2018
Preseason: #12 AP/#11 Coaches
Final: 12-1 - #5 AP/#5 Coaches
A much-anticipated match-up with Michigan opened the season and returning starting quarterback Brandon Wimbush used his arm and legs to lead the Irish to a 24-17 win over their midwestern rival. Wimbush lost his job to Book by the time September was over though. Book played extremely well, averaging over 300 passing yards per game during the regular season.
When Book missed a game with an injury, Wimbush stepped in and threw three touchdowns in the home finale vs Florida State. Book returned and helped lead the Irish to their first College Football Playoff – a loss to Clemson in the Cotton Bowl.
2019
Preseason: #9 AP/#9 Coaches
Final: 11-2 - #12 AP/#11 Coaches
Notre Dame followed its first College Football Playoff appearance with the hope that a return trip could be in its future. A week three 23-17 loss at Georgia was a missed opportunity. Notre Dame got the ball back near midfield with about two minutes left in the game but was unable to capitalize. The Irish didn't fall far in the rankings due to the closeness of that loss.
Notre Dame stayed in the Top 10 for three more weeks until a rain-soaked 45-14 loss at Michigan sank any remaining CFP thoughts. A Camping World Bowl win over Iowa State was the capper on the season. Notre Dame had an impressive record and finished just below expectations, but did so against a schedule that wasn't overly challenging. Notre Dame went just 1-2 against opponents that finished the season ranked, with the lone victory being over Navy.
This was a bit of a pattern in recent seasons.
2020
Preseason: #10 AP/#10 Coaches
Final: 10-2, 9-0 ACC* - #5 AP/#5 Coaches
*Only season in ACC
Covid changed everything in 2020, including Notre Dame’s long-standing tenure as college football’s beacon of independence. The pandemic nearly shutdown the season, but the Irish joined the ACC for a season and found its way to the College Football Playoff for the second time as well.
Notre Dame ripped through its one and only conference slate with a 9-0 record, including its thrilling 47-42 double overtime win over then #1 Clemson. The Tigers avenged the loss in the ACC Championship Game. Notre Dame's lone non-conference game of that season was a 52-0 victory over South Florida, avenging its 2011 loss to the Bulls.
Notre Dame’s only other loss was to eventual national champion Alabama in the CFP semifinals.
2021
Preseason: #9 AP/#7 Coaches
Final: 11-2 - #8 AP/#9 Coaches
Notre Dame had as many questions to answer heading into 2021 as it had in recent years. Namely, replacing the program’s all-time winningest quarterback (Ian Book), losing defensive coordinator Clark Lea to his first head coaching job at Vanderbilt and returning just one starter (Jarrett Patterson) along the offensive line.
What many thought would be a “transition” season turned into one where the Irish just missed the College Football Playoff. Quarterback Jack Coan and Kyren Williams adjusted behind an O-line that was a work in progress all season. New DC Marcus Freeman’s defense gave up fewer explosive plays as the season progressed (even with Kyle Hamilton missing six games due to a knee injury). The only thing that kept the Irish out of the College Football Playoff was a home loss to Cincinnati, which ultimately made its own CFP appearance.
Along the way, freshman Tyler Buchner gained valuable experience as a package quarterback and the Irish found their leader of the future in Freeman. Notre Dame also benefited from another manageable schedule. Cincinnati ended up being the only regular season opponent to finish the year ranked in the Top 25.
2022
The AP and Coaches Polls have yet to be released but the Irish are consistently being ranked in the Top 10 by preseason publications. Athlon Sports ranks Notre Dame #7 in its preseason magazine, 7th according to Sporting News and 8th in the Lindy's preseason magazine.
Freeman will get his shot to win some of the big game the previous head coach could not and take the program to another level, or once again lead an Irish program that is good, but not good enough.
Be sure to check out the Irish Breakdown message board, the Champions Lounge
Irish Breakdown Content
Notre Dame 2022 Roster
Notre Dame 2022 Schedule
Notre Dame 2023 Class Big Board
Notre Dame 2023 Commits Board - Offense
Notre Dame 2023 Commits Board - Defense
Notre Dame 2023 Scholarship Offers
Notre Dame 2024 Scholarship Offers
Ranking The 2022 Signees - Offense
Ranking The 2022 Signees - Defense
———————
Become a premium Irish Breakdown member, which grants you access to all of our premium content and our premium message board! Click on the link below for more.
Be sure to stay locked into Irish Breakdown all the time!
Join the Irish Breakdown community!
Subscribe to the Irish Breakdown YouTube channel
Subscribe to the Irish Breakdown podcast on iTunes
Follow me on Twitter: @SeanStires
Like and follow Irish Breakdown on Facebook
