Notre Dame vs Duke Game Predictions

The 11th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) and the 17th-ranked Duke Blue Devils (4-0) square off this weekend in what is a huge game for both teams.

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium (Durham, N.C.)
Date: Saturday - September 30th
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Network: ABC
Line: Notre Dame -5.5, O/U: 52

Irish Breakdown has broken down the game all week and now it's time to make our predictions.

BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER

Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Duke 20

I am having a tough time with this game after watching the Ohio State game. Notre Dame did a lot of great things in the game, but the offense's inability to score and unwillingness to attack down the field was problematic. This is especially true against a Duke secondary and defense that has been quite good so far this season. I also love what Mike Elko is doing with this Blue Devil program, which is very well coached and more talented than they are given credit for.

Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is also a problem that Notre Dame will need to find an answer for. He's a dynamic run-throw quarterback that can do damage with his arm and legs. Leonard has been just under 100 yards rushing in each of his matchups against Power 5 teams this year (Clemson, Northwestern). Notre Dame will need to keep him in check to come out on top in this game.

At the end of the day, I think Notre Dame will be ready to play this game and they have too much talent for Duke. It will be a tough battle for much of the game and I have the Irish pulling away in the second half behind a potent ground attack and pass game led by Sam Hartman that I think (maybe hope) will get back on track.

VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST

Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Duke 17

You want to talk about a game where we will learn a LOT about a program and a head coach, this is it. We are all still recovering from the devastating loss last weekend. There is no doubt about it. Notre Dame let one get away and there is no way to sugarcoat it. Here is the thing though, what happens this week? Has Marcus Freeman learned anything from devastating losses yet? Has this team really embraced the one play one life mantra that Marcus Freeman has been selling since January of this year? Can they bounce back? What does that look like? Does this team spiral in the wrong direction? Do that adopt the Tim Tebow or Drew Tranquill mentality and crush every opponent in their wake the rest of the way. We will learn a lot by about 9:00 Eastern time Saturday night.

I believe Marcus Freeman is the right man for the job. I believe he will have this team ready to fire on all cylinders come kickoff in Durham. The Irish are 5.5 point favorites in this one and I do believe this has all the makings of a trap game because Notre Dame could legitimately get beat on the road. That is a key part of a trap game for me, the actual possibility that they could lose. Couple that with what happened last week and it is a recipe for upset.

Here is the thing though; I just do not see that happening. They will be more than ready. They will come out and we will see this offense go to work. The efficiency will be what teaching film is made of and the defense is going to be all over the field. I think the Irish force two or more turnovers and score five or more touchdowns. Steve Angeli and the rest of the twos better get ready because those white jerseys are going to get some work before this one is all said and done.

RYAN ROBERTS, RECRUITING DIRECTOR

Prediction: Notre Dame 37, Duke 20

There are two ways that this game can go. One, Notre Dame comes in and plays pissed off and dominates. The other is that they come in reeling from the heartbreaking loss against Ohio State last week and either win a clunker, or lose altogether. I tend to favor the former.

Offensively, Notre Dame has the run game to threaten a less than stellar run stopping unit. They will play with a bully ball mentality and dominate upfront. Expect running back Audric Estime to have a big day.

On defense, Notre Dame will need to stop the run and not allow for explosive plays in the passing game. Blue Devil quarterback Riley Leonard will make a few plays but the key is to limiting them. A late score makes this one feel more respectable. Notre Dame dominates.

SEAN STIRES, STAFF WRITER

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Duke 17

It’s cliché to say a football game comes down to who protects the ball better, avoids turnovers...however you want to say it. But it will be the primary key in this game. Duke has won the turnover battle in 12 of the 17 games it has played with Mike Elko as head coach the last two seasons and they are 10-2 in those games. The Blue Devils rank No. 9 in the nation with a +5 turnover margin this season. Their team success is heavily reliant on the defense forcing turnovers and putting the offense in plus field position.

Duke’s offense comes down to quarterback Riley Leonard and how the Notre Dame defense contains him. Leonard completed just 51% of his 33 pass attempts in Duke’s win over Clemson, but he ran for 98 yards and a touchdown. He’s completed 67% of his passes through four games, but they have gone for just 11.9 yards per completion. He’s not a carbon copy of NC State’s Brennan Armstrong, but the game plan is very similar: keep Leonard in the pocket and don’t let him be a game breaker with his legs. Notre Dame’s secondary has the advantage and Notre Dame’s running game also has the advantage against the No. 68 run defense.

ANDREW MCDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR

Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Duke 20

This is the wrong week for Duke to be playing Notre Dame. This had all the makings of a classic trap game, right up until literally the last second of the loss to Ohio State. With reports that Marcus Freeman had the team in the stadium watching the replay of the last four minutes, I expect a veteran Notre Dame team to come out of the tunnel in Durham focused and angry. Mike Elko has built Duke into a quality football team and Riley Leonard gets nowhere near the attention he should get nationally, but if Notre Dame plays to its talent level, this isn't particularly close.

The Blue Devils are tied for 10th in the country with a +5 turnover margin and 2nd in the nation in red zone defense, allowing scores on only 50% of their drives. That stout red zone defense has been a big driver of blowout wins, and short fields generated by turnovers have allowed Duke to average 37.3 PPG despite only ranking 49th in the country in total offense. However, they'll be facing by far the best offense they have faced to this point. The Fighting Irish are averaging 39.6 PPG, are 4th in the country with only 2 lost turnovers (despite having played one more game than most teams), and have scored a touchdown on 15 of 18 red zone trips. Notre Dame will take care of the ball and control the line of scrimmage en route to a convincing victory on the road.

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