How Much Does Oklahoma Offense Really Need to Improve in 2026?

Column

We know the reasons for Oklahoma's offensive struggles last season. Some were outside of the Sooners' and first-year offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle's hands — no pun intended. Others were thanks to relying on inexperienced players and a general lack of execution.

It's clear what Arbuckle and Brent Venables wanted to emphasize with their offense during spring practices. Whether those efforts bear fruit will be answered come autumn.

When Venables is at the helm, you know that defense, time of possession and field position reign supreme. But at Oklahoma, you're expected to be elite on both sides of the ball. Venables and Arbuckle understood the assignment this offseason and worked to ensure 2026 brings a return of explosive Sooner offenses.

What kind of jump would the offense need to make in 2026? That depends on your expectations: Do you want them to be more balanced and potentially a better team? Or do you want them to be a legitimate championship contender?

Last year, Oklahoma's offense finished as the No. 51 offense according to ESPN's SP+ metric. The defense was truly elite at No. 4 behind Texas Tech, Indiana and Ohio State.

Outside of Isaiah Sategna III's All-SEC production, there wasn't much individual output to point to as a reason for optimism heading into 2026. John Mateer's stat line echoed 2001 Nate Hybl and no OU running back eclipsed 500 yards on the ground for the first time in 25 seasons.

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If you give the defense the benefit of the doubt, an elite level of play isn't out of the question in 2026. Even with R Mason Thomas, Gracen Halton and others gone to the NFL, Venables has developed his preferred side of the ball as a strength. There's reason to believe that will continue.

But the offense cannot live in the 50s or the 40s of SP+. Where does it need to land if you want to see a more balanced team?

The hope is that experience on the offensive line will trigger a trickle-down effect — a better running game, which means a better quarterback which means skill players get to feast. If those things happen, a jump into the 30s of SP+ is not out of the realm of possibility.

Oklahoma Sooners, John Mateer — Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

Here are the SEC teams who had an offense rated in the 30s of SP+:

SEC Schools With SP+ Offenses Rated 39-30

Alabama — 36
Texas — 30
Mississippi State — 39

Six SEC schools rated higher: Ole Miss (3), Vanderbilt (5), Tennessee (7), Texas A&M (11), Georgia (14) and Arkansas (16). But for now, focus on the three listed above.

The Crimson Tide also boasted the 11th-rated SP+ defense, Texas had the 18th. A fringe top-10 defense holds quite an advantage over Texas' fringe top-20, but their proximity makes the comparison apt. The Bulldogs are an outlier here, finishing with one of the worst rated defenses in the conference.

Alabama reached the SEC championship game and won a playoff game while the Longhorns suffered three regular season losses before winning their bowl game.

Should Oklahoma only land within the 30s of SP+ on offense and maintain a top-five defense — a big if even with Venables' reputation — the variance ranges from a respectable albeit disappointing nine-win season, missing the playoffs to an at-large playoff team with the firepower to win a game. That is where shooting for "better balance" may take the Sooners.

Oklahoma Sooners, R Mason Thomas — Oklahoma defensive end R Mason Thomas makes a tackle against Alabama in the CFP. | Carson Field, Sooners On SI

Every season is different and other teams will adjust, improve and fall off from their 2025 outputs. But, it does paint a picture that Arbuckle will need to bring OU's offense well into the top-25 of SP+ in order for the Sooners to truly have a chance to build off last year and become a title contender — and that's still assuming the defense is elite.

Ole Miss production appears to be a winning formula — one elite side of the ball along with a top-20 unit on the other. Having Trinidad Chambliss helps, but OU will need Mateer to be the player he was hyped to be coming into 2025. Venables, at least, has faith that he can be that dynamic of a player.

If those offseason improvements bear fruit, perhaps Mateer's production will rise. If that happens, OU's offense will make leaps in metrics ratings. Should that occur and they feel a championship is in play with this roster, it will need to not settle for subtle improvements, but fairly large jumps.

Considering the schedule, Oklahoma will need to reject humility and shoot for cockiness when it comes to offensive expectations. Simply put, if OU wants to win 10-plus games this year, "better balance" may not be enough.

Is it possible to make that jump? Yes. Is it likely? That's what autumn will tell us.

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