Oklahoma's Chances to Return to CFP, According to FPI

The Sooners went 10-3 and reached the College Football Playoff last year, but ESPN's Football Power Index predicts a tough road for them in 2026.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables poses for a photo after the Sooners' spring game. | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

Just over a month remains until college football’s Week Zero kicks off. 

And as a result, many national outlets have begun producing ratings and rankings ahead of the 2026 season. Most recently, ESPN released its 2026 Football Power Index (FPI) — which measures team strength and attempts to predict a team’s future performance — on Wednesday. 

Oklahoma checked into the preseason FPI rankings at No. 12 with a 17.8 rating. The Sooners’ grade is sixth in the SEC, behind Texas (26.9), Georgia (24.8), Alabama (20.1), LSU (20) and Texas A&M (20).

With several teams ahead of the Sooners in FPI, what do the metrics say about OU’s College Football Playoff chances?

Oklahoma is also sixth in the SEC in playoff probability, per the rankings. FPI gives the Sooners a 28.2 percent chance of returning to the CFP.

It may come across as discouraging that several teams are ahead of OU in the FPI forecast. But for the most part, the gap between the Sooners and their competitors isn’t particularly large.

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The SEC’s only two squads with CFP probabilities higher than 50 percent are Texas and Georgia at 69.9 percent and 63.3 percent, respectively. Only six other teams across the nation — Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Indiana, Miami and Texas Tech — are given chances higher than 50 percent by FPI. Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M’s CFP probabilities are all fewer than 15 percentage points ahead of the Sooners.

OU’s somewhat low playoff probability is likely the result of its daunting schedule. FPI’s strength of schedule metric ranks the Sooners’ 2026 slate as the nation’s second hardest, trailing only Arkansas. 

Predictive models — even the best ones — are flawed. Considering the amount of returning talent on OU’s roster and the defense’s steady improvement under Brent Venables, Sooner fans shouldn’t get discouraged about FPI giving them a 28.2 percent chance of reaching the playoff.

But it’s worth noting that there are a handful of SEC squads with lower CFP chances than OU that are capable of making a run.

Ole Miss, which reached the semifinals last year, comes into 2026 with a 22.8 percent chance of reaching the CFP. Longtime coach Lane Kiffin left the program in favor of LSU after the regular season, but with star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy back, the Rebels have a strong chance of being competitive again.

Though not on OU’s 2026 schedule, Tennessee is No. 16 in FPI and has a 20.5 percent chance of reaching the CFP. Because of the playoff’s current model, which requires five conference champions to make the field, the SEC can only get so many teams in, so Sooner fans should root for the Volunteers to fall short of expectations.

Only three SEC teams — Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Arkansas — have FPI playoff chances below 10 percent.

All signs point to the SEC being as deep as ever in 2026. And the Sooners will have to fire on all cylinders throughout their daunting slate to make it back to the CFP.

But time will tell how accurate FPI’s forecast is for Oklahoma’s season.