Staff Picks: Can Oklahoma Pull a Red River Upset Against No. 1 Texas?

John Hoover

Failure helps us learn. Overcoming failure helps us grow. And if you’re a college football coach, reliving your failures over and over helps you get fired. Brent Venables is 1-3 against Texas, and the only time his team even scored a touchdown in the Cotton Bowl was a 34-30 victory over the Longhorns three years ago — the dramatic Dillon Gabriel comeback. That’s also the Sooners’ only trip to Dallas under Venables in which they featured a settled quarterback situation. In ’22, Gabriel was out with a concussion. In ’24, true freshman Michael Hawkins was making his second career start against a top-five, CFP-bound Texas squad. And last year, John Mateer was fresh off thumb surgery. Now Mateer is among the national leaders with six turnovers. His body is healthy, but his mind doesn’t seem right. That’s hard when you’re facing your biggest rival — who also happens to be the No. 1-ranked team in the country for the second time in three years.

Final: Texas 24, Oklahoma 13

Ryan Chapman

As pointed out by both Brent Venables and Ben Arbuckle this week, the team that usually takes care of the football and wins the rushing battle wins the Red River Rivalry. The Oklahoma defense has the talent and the discipline to turn over Texas and bottle up the Longhorn rushing attack. The only problem is that the Sooners have one of the worst rushing attacks in the entire country, and quarterback John Mateer not only turns the ball over often, but the mistakes are catastrophic. It's hard to see how OU moves the ball consistently against Texas without putting the ball in Mateer's hands a bunch on Saturday, which also gives the veteran QB ample opportunity to shoot the team in the foot. Much like the 2025 contest, the game will be tight early, but the Longhorns have enough firepower to pull away in the second half, just as Georgia's offense did after the wave of Mateer mistakes.

Final: Texas 31, Oklahoma 10

Carson Field

The only chance OU has to upset No. 1 Texas is to play — and win — an ugly football game. And considering how inconsistent the Longhorns’ offense has been, that’s not impossible. Texas quarterback Arch Manning is far from a finished product, and the Longhorns are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Even so, OU’s offense is in a much rougher spot. The Sooners haven’t been able to take care of the football, and given how strung Texas’ defense is, it’s hard to imagine that OU will finally solve all of its offensive problems. Weird things happen at the Cotton Bowl, and I expect them to in this matchup. Oklahoma will keep things close until late, when the Sooners’ defense runs out of gas.

Final: Texas 24, Oklahoma 10

Ryan Aber

It's not going to be easy for the Sooners to pull this one off, especially if Michael Fasusi doesn't play. Oklahoma's offensive line has been bad all season and John Mateer has made mistake after mistake. Texas' offense hasn't been dominant so far, but they have plenty of playmakers around Arch Manning and with Hollywood Smothers available, they have another potential game-breaker. But the Sooners' defense is good, really good, even if they aren't as deep as last year's group. Mateer won't be as bad as he was against Georgia, the special teams will come up with a big play, and the defense will help keep the Sooners in it until the second half. But the Longhorns will be too much. Manning comes up with a key touchdown, Texas takes advantage of a turnover and Oklahoma drops their third consecutive Red River game. The biggest hope is that they build some semblance of momentum for the rest of the season.

Final: Texas 24, Oklahoma 10

Brady Trantham

It's becoming more and more apparent that this is a bad Oklahoma football team. There is talent on this roster, mainly on one side of the ball, but there is far too much inconsistency on offense. Years of assumptions that old coaches would learn new tricks or that players only capable of performing in the shadow of expectations at a place like Oklahoma seem to be culminating at the worst time — a potential third consecutive loss to Texas (fourth in five years) in a season where the Longhorns are positioned to shorten the national championship gap between the two programs. OU puts up a fight in the first half, but a turnover-prone and downright bad offense cannot sustain a good early start, allowing fatigue to set in on defense. The Longhorns pull away in the second half.

Final: Texas 37, Oklahoma 13

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