What X-Factors Could Shape Oklahoma's Upset Bid in the Red River Rivalry?

Confidence

Here’s the tricky thing for John Mateer and the OU offense: he’s good enough to beat No. 1-ranked Texas. He’s a good football player who spent the offseason working on his body and his fundamentals, and he’s somehow regressed. That points to overthinking, which points to a stark lack of confidence. In last year’s Red River Rivalry, Mateer produced zero touchdowns and threw three interceptions. We can lay that one on thumb surgery 17 days prior and no running game to speak of. Now, the Sooners still can’t run the football, but Mateer’s thumb is just fine. He says. So now Mateer just needs to get out of his own head and play football. Stop overthinking things, relax and play. Don’t wait for the crowd to tell you someone’s open deep. Read the safety and see it for yourself (because you’ve put in the work these last two weeks and you know the Texas defense), then deliver the football on time (because you have the arm strength and the accuracy — and because the Texas pass rush will punish you if you don’t.

— John Hoover

Break Even in TOP

Oklahoma's offense needs to do a lot right to get on track on Saturday. Against an excellent Texas defense, nobody is asking Ben Arbuckle's unit to score 40 points. But the Sooners need to be able to move the chains a few times, even on drives that end in punts, to keep the defense fresh on the sidelines and give them time to made adjustments as needed. The defense felt stranded in the first half against Michigan because the offense couldn't stay on the field — a fate OU must avoid in the Cotton Bowl.

— Ryan Chapman

Force Turnovers

It’s hard to imagine that OU turns in a turnover-free outing at the Cotton Bowl. The Sooners have already given the ball away 10 times through four games, and quarterback John Mateer is responsible for six of those giveaways. Oklahoma has plenty of offensive problems, and it’s unrealistic to expect all of them to be fixed against Texas’ stingy defense. That makes it imperative for OU’s defense to force takeaways. The defense has, for the most part, been stellar to begin 2026. But the unit has forced only four turnovers. Texas’ offense hasn’t struggled as much as OU’s, but the Longhorns’ offense has yet to play its best football. To have a chance against Texas’ uber-talented roster, the Sooners must win the turnover margin.

— Carson Field

Managing the Offense on the Texas Side

The most unique thing about the Red River game itself is the differing atmospheres at both ends of the field. At one end, it's a Sooners' home game. At the other, it's like the game is happening in Austin, Texas. Oklahoma's offense hasn't been good so far this season, and they need to be able to limit mistakes — both with John Mateer and the rest of the group. One of the few positive things so far for the Oklahoma offensive line has been the Sooners' limited penalties up front in road games against Michigan and Georgia. When the offense is in the Texas end, they're going to need to avoid costly penalties and turnovers at the very least. And if Oklahoma is to find a way to be in the game late or pull off the upset, they'll need to make some big plays. If they make them in the Longhorns' end of the field, that can go a long way toward taking the Texas crowd out of it.

— Ryan Aber

Make Arch Beat You

Texas is a great team. Contrary to popular belief, while their production suggests they aren't explosive, they are more than capable with a plethora of skill talent. But Oklahoma must go in with the belief, no, the knowledge that their defense is better than what the Longhorn offense can throw at them. If the Sooner confidence is that high, then they must make Texas one-dimensional and force Arch Manning to be more than the game manager who made occasional plays in last year's Red River Rivalry. Manning is still a talented quarterback, but OU's efforts would be made easier if Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown are held in check.

— Brady Trantham

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook and X for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google