Four Bold Predictions for Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. UCF Knights in Week 6
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys are back home and eager to put on a show for their fans as a Top 25 team for the first time in two years.
The Cowboys (3-1, 1-0 in Big 12) have not played at home since they entered the AP Top 25 after the victory over West Virginia. OSU had its bye week, weathered some controversy surrounding athletic director Chad Weiberg’s job and is back on the field preparing for the UCK Knights (3-2, 1-1).
The Knights have never played in Stillwater. The Cowboys have not beaten the Knights in two tries.
Here are four bold predictions for Saturday’s game between the Cowboys and the Knights, including a score prediction
Caleb Hawkins Scores Twice
To this point, Caleb Hawkins has been highly productive but hasn’t scored in bunches. He’s already rushed for 441 yards and caught 11 passes for 43 yards. But he’s only scored twice. This is a back that scored 29 times as a true freshman, breaking an NCAA record.
I believe there are a few factors. The Cowboys are acutely focused on trying to fix their red zone woes and they really haven’t tried using him in that fashion since Week 1. The offensive line is healthy, and Braydon Nelson’s return gives them another fresh tackle or guard to use in short yardage situations.
UCF has a good run defense, giving up 120 yards per game. But I saw some vulnerabilities watching the Knights’ game against Houston that OSU should be able to exploit. I think Hawkins has a big day in the end zone.
Braydon Nelson Gets at Least 30 Snaps
The return of offensive tackle Braydon Nelson is something Morris has been waiting for since the season started. It’s clear that he trusts his junior tackle more than most offensive linemen. He was willing to put Nelson on the depth chart at either tackle position this week. He was even willing to invoke Nelson’s name as a potential replacement for Johnny Dickson III at left guard.
It’s clear that Morris wants Nelson on the field. I don’t think he wants to displace either left tackle Shaun Torgeson or right tackle Ashton Lepo — at least this week.
I suspect Morris will use Nelson to spell both tackles, along with Dickson or Desmond Magiya at left guard and by game’s end Nelson will have worked more than most expect.
OSU Defense Has Trouble with Keyone Jenkins – For a Half
Head coach Eric Morris has experience with UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins. When Morris was at North Texas Jenkins was at FIU. Back in 2023, Jenkins had a great day against UNT in a 46-39 win. He threw for 291 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 33 yards. He also threw two interceptions.
Jenkins was supposed to back up Alonza Barnett III. But with the James Madison transfer still out with a hamstring injury, Jenkins should get the start again. He’s been solid since taking over the job. He’s completed nearly 70% of his passes and has four touchdowns against two interceptions.
He gave Houston fits in the first half, and I think he’ll do the same to the Cowboys. The Knights are a bit desperate. They know they can’t lose two Big 12 games in a road and have a shot at contending. This will go much like the West Virginia game. The Cowboys’ defense will have trouble with containing him in the first half and then lock him down in the second half.
Jenkins will end up with less than the 253 yards he threw for last week. Watch for an interception from OSU’s LaDanian Fields.
Game Prediction
It's always hard to judge a team after their bye week. Morris clearly felt that the Cowboys were getting their bye week at the right time. They were banged up coming out of the West Virginia game and their sparse injury report indicates the bye week helped them considerably. It's the sharpness of the team that is usually the biggest concern coming out of a two-week break. I’m not as concerned about the Cowboys, if we’re being honest. This is their first game as a Top 25 team at home since 2024 and I think they’re eager to show off for their fans.
UCF has several key players already out for the game. Now those players have been out a few weeks, and UCF has done a nice job of augmenting that lost production. But the key is wide receiver. If they have both Josh Derry and Duane Thomas Jr. on the field, then the Knights have significant firepower, and the Cowboys defense may have its hands full. If one or neither plays, it could be a long day for the Knights.
I think Oklahoma State wins. It’s close for three quarters before the Cowboys salt it away with the run game and Hawkins. Oklahoma State 33, UCF 24
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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