What the Advanced Analytics Say About Oregon vs. Rutgers

The Oregon Ducks will take the cross country trip to play the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Dan Lanning's team will look to shake off their loss to the Indiana Hoosiers and avoid being put on upset alert. What do the advanced analytics say about the game?

Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning walks the field before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the Oregon State Beavers Sept. 20, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks will look to bounce back from their home defeat to the Indiana Hoosiers when they go on the road to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. PT on Saturday, Oct. 18. The game will be broadcast on Big Ten Network.

Will Oregon get back in the win column?

Oregon vs. Rutgers Preview, FPI Prediction

Rutgers Head Coach, Greg Schiano watches his Scarlet Knights, Thursday, August 28, 2025. | Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Oregon an 83.8 percent chance to beat Rutgers. 

FPI ranks the Ducks No. 3 in the Big Ten with a grade of 22.0 while the Scarlet Knights are No. 12 at 4.0. 

In their last game, Oregon lost at home to visiting Indiana by a final score of 30-20. It was a stunning result to most as Oregon was about a touchdown favorite and boasted the longest active home winning streak in the country. This was the Ducks first loss and quarterbacks Dante Moore’s worst outing of the season as they fell to 5-1.

The Hoosiers were the better team in this game and was able to overcome an Oregon second half interception return for a touchdown and still win by double figures. 

Oct 11, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) runs with the ball against Indiana Hoosiers defensive linemen Mikail Kamara (6) and Stephen Daley (8) during the second quarter at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Rutgers has yet to win a Big Ten conference game this season. The Scarlet Knights got off to a 3-0 start with non-conference wins over Ohio, Miami (Ohio), and Norfolk State. They have lost all three of their Big Ten games since; against the Iowa Hawkeyes, Minnesota Golden Gophers, and Washington Huskies to fall to 3-3. 

The Scarlet Knights are led by coach Greg Schiano and quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who has thrown for 1,785 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions thus far. 

Oregon vs. Rutgers Betting Odds

Sep 19, 2025; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) looks to pass during the first half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Oregon is a 17.5 point road favorite over Rutgers according to ESPN BET. The Ducks have odds of -1000 to win outright while the Scarlet Knights are +600. 

The over/under is currently at 60.5 points. 

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Oregon vs. Rutgers Score Prediction 

Oregon coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field before the game against Indiana at Autzen Stadium October 11, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Dan Lanning and the Ducks cannot afford to let their last loss wane on them against Rutgers. They must turn the page and move on. The way to do that is come out firing vs. Rutgers. A loss on the road to a team they should beat could begin to derail what started as a 5-0 season that had them ranked as high as No. 2 in the AP Poll. 

Just a few weeks ago, the Penn State Nittany Lions were in a similar situation. They were ranked No. 3 before losing at home to a very good Oregon team. This began a downward spiral for the Nittany Lions, who followed it up with losses to UCLA and Northwestern and then firing coach James Franklin. 

That’s an extreme, but the point still stands that Oregon has to brush off the Indiana game. Rutgers will have their home fans ready for this one, but Lanning has yet to lose back to back games as Oregon coach and that streak will continue. 

Ducks win, but watch out for the Scarlet Knights' backdoor cover.

Oregon 40, Rutgers 24

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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