Why National Championship Odds Still Give Oregon Ducks Hope Despite UCLA Upset

The Oregon Ducks' national title dreams are battered, but not yet buried despite a pair of losses.

Oct. 10, 2026; Eugene, Oregon; Oregon Ducks coach Dan Lanning watches his final kickoff bounce down the sideline against the UCLA Bruins at Autzen Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Oregon Ducks (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) and No. 12 UCLA Bruins (5-0, 3-0 Big Ten) discovered on Saturday at Autzen Stadium that 60 minutes of football can drastically alter a team’s national championship odds.

UCLA’s 17-15 upset win sent Oregon tumbling out of the AP Top 25, while dealing a significant blow to the Ducks’ title chances.

Oct 10, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dylan Raiola runs the ball against UCLA Bruins linebacker Sammy Omosigho at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now the two programs share +6600 odds, per BetMGM, of emerging from the 2026 College Football Playoff on top. Despite their identical odds, the two programs appear to be trending in opposite directions.

Oregon Ducks Updated Championship Odds

Oregon now sits at +6600 odds, a steep fall from its preseason opening odds of +700.

It doesn’t get much better for coach Dan Lanning’s squad. DraftKings lists the Ducks at +7000, while FanDuel places them at +8000 to win it all.

Oct 10, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks wide receiver Evan Stewart celebrates scoring a touchdown with tight end Jamari Johnson against the UCLA Bruins at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The shift leaves Oregon outside the top-10 contenders, leaving the Ducks tied with No. 14 Tennessee, No. 10 Texas Tech and the Bruins, all ranked inside the top 15 on the AP poll.

The usual suspects of No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 3 Miami and No. 4 Ohio State, as well as No. 1 Georgia, continue to occupy the top-four spots, while the odds lengthen precipitously between No. 5 Indiana (+1000) and No. 9 Ole Miss (+2500).

National Championship Odds, per BetMGM

Ohio State +425
Georgia +450
Notre Dame +500
Miami +650
Texas +700
Alabama +900
Indiana +1000
Ole Miss +2500
LSU +3000
Oklahoma +5000
Utah +6000
Oregon +6600
Tennessee +6600
Texas Tech +6600
UCLA +6600

Why Oddsmakers Haven’t Given Up on Oregon

How is it that unranked Oregon can have the same odds as three of the nation’s top 14 teams?

Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) and UCLA are unbeaten on the season, while Tennessee’s (5-1, 2-1 SEC) only loss came at the hands of No. 7 Texas.

Saturday, Sept., 12, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma; Oregon Ducks running back Dierre Hill Jr. is tackled by Oklahoma State Cowboys linebacker Jerry Lawson at Boone Pickens Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Yet the Ducks, with losses to No. 18 Oklahoma State (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) and UCLA, sit with the same title odds as the Red Raiders, Volunteers and Bruins. The comparison isn’t specific to BetMGM. DraftKings, for example, now has Oregon at +7000, Texas Tech at +7200 and Tennessee at +10000.

Where the AP rankings reflect results on the field, championship futures also consider a team’s expectations going forward. So despite a pair of unflattering losses, Oregon remains in the conversation, as its past continues to prop up its future for the time being.

BetMGM opened the Ducks at +700 to start the season with Texas Tech following at +1500 and Tennessee at +5000. Simply put, Oregon’s current odds suggest that the team that began the year with title hopes still has a pathway to postseason glory.

Telling Me There’s a Chance

Oct. 10, 2026; Eugene, Oregon; Oregon quarterbacks coach Koa Ka'ai talks to quarterback Dylan Raiola during warmups before facing the UCLA Bruins at Autzen Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Ducks’ margin for error is razor thin.

But there’s a factor that might be keeping Dan Lanning’s squad in the mix, and his name is quarterback Dante Moore.

Oregon’s two losses have come by a combined 10 points in games the Ducks had an opportunity to win or tie on their final drive. A bounce here or a favorable call there and Oregon, despite some of its struggles, theoretically could be 5-0 entering Week 7 against Nebraska.

And thus a much different narrative would be swirling around Eugene these days.

Moore undoubtedly struggled in the 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State, finishing 14-of-29 for 191 yards and two touchdowns, with the Cowboys having potentially picked up tells in the Oregon offense. 

Oct. 10, 2026; Eugene, Oregon; Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola passes off the ball against the UCLA Bruins at Autzen Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Raiola was historically bad, going 6-for-19 for 43 yards and two interceptions while posting minus-1.20 Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback, the lowest single-game mark in the FBS since 2024.

Just like against Oklahoma State, however, the Ducks were still within striking distance in the game’s final moments, losing 17-15 to the Bruins.

The road ahead won’t be easy, but it’s not impossible if Oregon can iron out some kinks and get Moore back to one hundred percent.

They’re also not alone. No. 21 LSU (4-2, 1-2 SEC) and Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1 SEC) have two losses on the year, as well, and better national championship odds at +3000 for the Tigers and +5000 for the Sooners.

Oct 10, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Brock Thomas makes a pass during the fourth quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Ducks essentially have to win out, including their Nov. 7 trip to Ohio State. Their title hopes have already been battered by a mere 10 points. They cannot afford to lose another.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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