Oregon Ducks Receive Conflicting College Football Playoff Projections

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks beat the Wisconsin Badgers 21-7 at home, but it wasn't Oregon's best performance on paper against a program that has struggled all year in Big Ten play — and that has resulted in conflicting opinions on where the Ducks deserve to be seeded in the playoffs.

Oregon Ducks Wisconsin Badgers Iowa Hawkeyes Jordon Davison Dante Moore Indiana Hoosiers College Football Playoff seed bracket | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks took down the Wisconsin Badgers 21-7 in Eugene, but intense rain and wind made it a different type of ball game, which Oregon appeared to struggle in on paper. The Ducks had to rely heavily on the run game, with freshman running back Jordon Davison leading the team with 102 of the 203 total rushing yards and having the only two rushing touchdowns of the game.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore struggled to find a groove, completing 9-15 passes for 86 yards before leaving the game in the third quarter with a nose injury and never returning to the game.

The Ducks had a slow start to the first quarter, being stuffed on the line of scrimmage, resulting in negative 16 yards on the ground and failure to convert first downs.

Oregon's struggles have now caused conflicting College Football Playoff projections. There is a mix of opinions from ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach, with Bonagura having Oregon as a five seed, and Schlabach deeming the Ducks as a nine seed.

Oct 25, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning instructs players during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Mixed Opinions With Playoff Bracket Seeding

For Schlabach, Oregon's struggle to win over Wisconsin is ultimately what dropped the team from a six to a nine seed in his prediction, but the Ducks can make up for it.

"The game was played in torrential rain at times, and star quarterback Dante Moore left in the third quarter with a face injury," Schlabach wrote. "The Ducks will have to play better when they travel to Iowa on Nov. 8."

With Schlaback unimpressed and seeding Oregon at ninth, it means the program would have to hit the road in the first round of the College Football Playoff and face the eighth-seeded Miami Hurricanes.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the field before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers on Oct. 25, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

However, Bonagura believes the Ducks are deserving of a five seed, meaning the program would host the 12-seeded Navy in Autzen Stadium during the first round. While Oregon has had its struggles in games against No. 2 Indiana and unranked Wisconsin, their numbers in conference play prove it's still an elite program.

The Ducks have the third most passing touchdowns with 10 total in conference play, but the Ducks lead the conference with 1,051 rushing yards and are tied for second with 10 touchdowns on the ground.

It isn't just the Ducks' offense that tops the statistics; the defense has its own real estate as well. Oregon is tied for first with 28 pass deflections and tied for second with seven interceptions in conference play.

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Ducks Predicted To Play In Quarterfinal

Oct 25, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning encourages players during warm ups before a game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks are wearing uniforms celebrating the Grateful Dead. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

While Bonagura and Schlabach had Oregon at different seeds in the first rounds, playing in two different parts of the country, one common ground in that they believed Oregon had what it takes to win and earn a spot in the CFP quarterfinal.

Bonagura's prediction has the Ducks facing No. 4-seeded Alabama at the Capital One Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

However, Schlabach has a rematch of last year's Rose Bowl with Oregon taking on No. 1-seeded Ohio State for a second year in a row in Pasadena, California.

But the quarterfinal is where the road is predicted to end yet again for Oregon, according to both Bonagura and Schlabach.

Oregon Needs Another Win

The Ducks are 4-1 in conference play and have had their quality win over Penn State deteriorate, and were unable to pull off a win over No. 2 Indiana. But their next matchup against the unranked Iowa Hawkeyes could be instrumental in its quest to regain credibility in the win column, and keep momentum heading into the end of the regular season

Oregon has a bye week during week 10 of the college football season, then will hit the road for its matchup against Iowa on Saturday, Nov. 8, at Kinnick Stadium.