Oregon Ducks In Line For Two Wildly Different College Football Playoff Paths

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks moved up one spot in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings. The Ducks jumped over Texas A&M, who dropped from No. 3 to No. 7. With the jump, the Ducks are in line for two wildly different possible playoff paths.

As it currently stands, the Ducks would host a first round playoff game vs. the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which will most likely be either Tulane or James Madison. This is the path that a good contingency of Ducks fans are rooting for, as it would allow the Ducks to have a “tune-up” game at Autzen Stadium before the quarterfinal round.

The ACC will play a big role in the Ducks' playoff path. If No. 17 Virginia wins the ACC championship game against Duke, it is looking likely that the Ducks would play No. 20 Tulane if Tulane is able to defeat No. 24 North Texas. If Duke defeats Virginia, the Ducks would most likely face off against No. 25 JMU in the first round of the CFP and the ACC could possibly be left out altogether.

Ducks Could Find Themselves With A First-Round Bye

Oregon Ducks Dan Lanning Dante Moore Indiana Hoosiers Autzen Stadium College Football Playoff Rankings Dakorien Moore — Nov 29, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning during the second half against the Washington Huskies at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The possibility of the Ducks getting a first-round bye became more real with the latest batch of rankings that put the Ducks right outside the top-four at No. 5. The top four seeds get byes and Oregon is right on the cusp. While No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are unlikely to fall out of top four, it is possible that No. 4 Texas Tech could drop a few spots if they were to lose the Big 12 championship game against BYU.

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BYU coach Kalani Sitaki recently chose to stay at BYU over going to coach at Penn State, and his loyalty could be a boost for his BYU players as the Big 12 championship is most likely a “win and in” situation for the Cougars.

If the Ducks do end up with a bye, their first playoff game would come on Jan. 1 and likely the Orange Bowl... That is more than a month of "rest" for Oregon. Which sparks the old rest vs. rust conversation.

Ducks Will Need Help To Avoid Ohio State Buckeyes

The Ducks' best road to a national championship is undoubtedly avoiding Ohio State until the national championship game. If Ohio State beats Indiana in the Big Ten championship game, the Ducks will need to have the No. 2, No. 3, or No. 6 seed in order to avoid the same side of the bracket as the Buckeyes.

While the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds are likely out of reach for Oregon, if No. 9 Alabama beats No. 3 Georgia, it’s possible Alabama could move up to No. 4 and Georgia could move back to No. 5, pushing Oregon to No. 6.

Ducks Could Be In Line For Rematch With Indiana Hoosiers

The Ducks could very possibly be in line for a matchup with No. 2 Indiana in the quarterfinal round of the CFP. If both Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech win their respective conference championship games, in which they are all favorites, Indiana could move down to No. 4, which would set up the No. 5 Ducks with a chance for revenge if they were to win their first-round matchup at Autzen Stadium.