Oregon Ducks Updated Bowl Projection Sparks Rematch Buzz

The No. 20 Oregon Ducks could be set for a rematch according to this bowl projection entering Week 4 of the college football season.

Jul 29, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Oregon Football head coach Dan Lanning speaks during Big Ten Media Days at Hilton Chicago. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The No. 20 Oregon Ducks season could be on the line on Saturday against the No. 12 USC Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. On Friday night, the Ducks rebounded from their 39-31 road loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys by beating the Portland State Vikings 84-0. It was their largest margin of victory at Autzen Stadium, beating a record also set in a game against Portland State in 2023. 

Despite the dominant win over Portland State, the Ducks are still ranked outside the top 15. A loss to the Trojans on Saturday would cause the Ducks to drop out of the AP Top 25 poll. The Ducks would also likely need to win out to make the College Football Playoff. 

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, talks to Oregon offensive lineman Dave Iuli as the Oregon Ducks host the Portland State Vikings on Sept. 18, 2026, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It’s the last scenario Oregon fans want, as the Ducks entered the season ranked No. 2 in the country and with expectations to win the national championship in program history. Those expectations are still alive for the Ducks, as Saturday’s matchup against the Trojans allows Oregon to return to the national championship conversation. 

Oregon Ducks Bowl Projection Sets Up Orange Bowl Rematch

Oregon wide receiver Malik Benson takes off as the Oregon Ducks take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN’s bowl projections after an action-packed Week 3 college football slate, however, again project the Ducks out of the CFP picture. Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach both project Oregon playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Alamo Bowl. 

This would be a rematch of last season’s CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl, a game which the Ducks won 23-0 before losing 56-22 in the Semifinal at the Peach Bowl to the eventual national champions, the Indiana Hoosiers. 

The Red Raiders, like the Ducks, are looking to get back to the CFP after earning a first-round bye last season. So far this season, the Red Raiders are 3-0, are ranked No. 11 in the AP Top 25, and are coming off a hard-fought 28-26 win over the No. 25 Houston Cougars.

Despite their top-11 ranking, it's the No. 9 BYU Cougars who are projected to represent the Big 12 in the CFP this season. The Red Raiders beat the Cougars 34-7 in the Big 12 Championship game to book a spot in the CFP.

Oregon Ducks Recent Alamo Bowl Appearances

Dec 29, 2021; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oregon Ducks mascot Puddles at the 2021 Alamo Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports

The Ducks have appeared in the Alamo Bowl three previous times and are 1-2 in the game. Oregon’s three Alamo Bowl games came before Lanning took over as the Ducks' coach in 2022. The Ducks' one Alamo Bowl win was a 30-7 victory against the Texas Longhorns in 2013. 

The two losses came against the TCU Horned Frogs (2016) and Oklahoma Sooners (2021). The 2016 49-41 triple-overtime loss to the Horned Frogs is a game Oregon fans would like to forget. The Ducks led 31-0 at halftime, only to see their lead collapse in the second half. 

Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff Chances After Week 3

Sep 18, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning runs out to the field with players before a game against the Portland State Vikings at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While this Saturday’s matchup will have pivotal implications for the Ducks' chances of making the CFP, other games will be crucial, including another road matchup on Nov. 7 against the No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus and a home clash with the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines on Nov. 14.  

Entering their Week 4 showdown at the Coliseum against the Trojans, the Ducks ' CFP chances, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, are 20.7 percent. The Trojans are just ahead of Oregon at 21.4 percent, making this game extremely important to both teams’ odds. 

The Trojans can afford a loss on Saturday more than the Ducks, as they are undefeated at 4-0 after wins over the San Jose State Spartans, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, and Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  

USC is looking to break its four-game losing streak against the Ducks, which dates back to 2019, and Trojans coach Lincoln Riley aims for his first win against Lanning and Oregon, as he is currently 0-2 in his tenure, with both those games coming at Autzen Stadium.

Oregon Ducks Week 4 Matchup vs. USC Trojans

Sep 19, 2026; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With both defenses showing their flaws this season, Saturday’s matchup could be an offensive shootout as two of college football’s top quarterbacks, Dante Moore (Oregon) and Jayden Maiava (USC), will face off at the Coliseum.

Through four games this season, Maiava has been one of the country's most efficient quarterbacks, leading the FBS in passing with 1,173 yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception. Maiava is also completing 75.7 percent of his passes.

Sep 18, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) warms up before a game against the Portland State Vikings at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As for Moore, a stellar performance on Saturday could earn him a place back in the race as a Heisman Trophy contender. After he struggled in the road loss to Oklahoma State in Week 2, Moore bounced back at home against Portland State, throwing for 280 yards and four touchdowns on 19-of-23 passes.

Early DraftKings Sportsbook betting odds currently have the Ducks as three-point favorites on Saturday against the Trojans. The over/under line is currently 62.5. The Ducks and Trojans will kick off at the Coliseum at 4:30 p.m. PT, with the game broadcast on NBC.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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