Oregon Ducks' Updated College Football Playoff Chances After Week 5

The No. 2 Oregon Ducks’ chances of advancing to the College Football Playoff for the second straight season are looking pretty good following their road victory over then-No. 3 Penn State.

With a couple of Big Ten wins under their belt and perhaps the biggest regular-season challenge behind them, the Ducks still look to continue picking up wins and make it to the postseason. In a competitive Big Ten conference, who could end up in the CFP remains very much up in the air.

Oregon’s CFP Chances

oregon ducks big ten college football transfer portal recruiting dan lanning penn state ohio state buckeyes indiana hoosiers — Oregon head coach Dan Lanning looks toward the scoreboard in the first half as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), the Ducks have the highest chance in the nation of making the CFP at 86.9 percent.

Oregon dominated it opponents in the first four weeks of the season and defeated a good Nittany Lions squad on the road in just about as hostile of an environement as it gets in college football.

The Ducks still have a matchup against No. 8 Indiana ahead of them in week 7 at home. Even if Oregon loses one game, it’s still seems likely it’ll make the postseason.

The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes are the other likely Big Ten program to make the CFP. The FPI gives the Buckeyes an 86.7 percent chance of making it. Similar to the Ducks, Ohio State has dominated most of its matchups and took down then-No. 1 Texas in week 1.

The Buckeyes have arguably a tougher schedule to finish the regular season than the Ducks, including games against ranked Illinois, Penn State and Michigan teams. Given how they’ve played so far, if they can potentially afford to lose a game or two like the Ducks and still make it to the CFP.

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Did the Ducks Knock Penn State Out Of Contention?

Outside of Oregon and Ohio State, it’s more unpredictable who else from the Big Ten could make the postseason.

Oregon’s win against Penn State in week 5 narrowed the Nittany Lions’ chances of making the CFP. The three wins Penn State has this season are against all non-Power Four opponents. The Nittany Lions also have games against Ohio State and Indiana later this season, and there’s no longer a ton of room for error after the loss.

The Hoosiers are a major competitor with Penn State for a CFP spot. Especially if the Ducks defeat Indiana in week 7, whoever wins the game between the Hoosiers and the Nittany Lions may be the team that advances to the CFP.

Michigan and USC are among the other Big Ten programs that could sneak into the postseason. The Wolverines have a 34.5 percent chance of getting in (compared to Penn State’s 22.5 percent chance), and the Trojans have the sixth-best chances in the conference.

Oregon doesn’t just control its own destiny at this point in the season. With games against Indiana and USC coming up and an opportunity to play a team like Penn State or Ohio State in the Big Ten Conference Championship, the Ducks could potentially play spoiler to another program and determine who else makes the CFP.