Oregon Fans Won't Like ESPN's Score Prediction For Texas Tech vs. Ducks

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks will face the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl in a battle of two dominant defenses. In a game that could go either way, Oregon fans won't like this prediction for the Orange Bowl.

Dec 20, 2025; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning smiles during the third quarter against the James Madison Dukes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

After falling short in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal last season to the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl, the No. 5 Oregon Ducks have returned to the stage where they were eliminated a year ago. This time around, Oregon is looking to come out on top and advance to the CFP Semifinal.

Following their dominant offensive performance, beating the No. 12 James Madison Dukes 54-31 in the first round at Autzen Stadium, Oregon’s explosive offense will face one of the best defenses in college football in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl, the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the sideline as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon is currently a 2.5-point favorite over Texas Tech, according to DraftKings Sportbook; however, ESPN’s latest prediction for the Orange Bowl matchup is likely to upset Ducks fans. ESPN predicts that Texas Tech will beat Oregon 23-20 in the Orange Bowl, in a low-scoring defensive game between two of the country’s best defenses.

Why Texas Tech's Defense Gives Them Slight Advantage vs. Oregon

Dec 6, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (10) gets into position during the game between the Red Raiders and the Cougars at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Red Raiders hold a slight defensive advantage over the Ducks heading into the Orange Bowl matchup. Texas Tech ranks No. 3 in the country in total defense, allowing an average of 254.4 yards and 10.9 points per game.

The Red Raiders' rush defense is also ranked No. 1 in the country, allowing an average of 68.5 rushing yards per game. Heading into the Orange Bowl, Texas Tech's rush defense could put them at a major advantage against Oregon’s dominant running back trio of Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. 

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Texas Tech’s defense helped lead the Red Raiders to their first-ever Big 12 Championship win. Their defense is led by one of the best linebackers in college football, Jacob Rodriguez, who leads the team with 117 total tackles, seven forced fumbles, and four interceptions. The Red Raiders enter the Orange Bowl with a 12-1 overall record on the season. Their only loss came on the road against the Arizona State Sun Devils, where they fell 26-22 on Oct. 18. 

How Oregon's Explosive Offense Can Exploit Texas Tech's Defense

Oregon celebrates a touchdown by Oregon quarterback Dante Moore as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon also enters with one loss on the season and a 12-1 record, and its defense aims to have a major impact in the Orange Bowl. The Ducks rank No. 8 in the country in total defense, allowing an average of 271.4 yards and 16.3 points per game. With the potential of defense, ultimately being the deciding factor in the Orange Bowl, Oregon’s high-powered offense, led by quarterback Dante Moore, will look to find success against Texas Tech.

The Ducks have several talented offensive weapons that present problems for Texas Tech’s defense, including wide receivers Malik Benson, Jeremiah McClellan, Dakorien Moore, and Gary Bryant Jr., as well as tight end Kenyon Sadiq. Oregon, being at full strength on offense with the return of Moore and Bryant Jr., gives the Ducks more ways to exploit Texas Tech's defense.

Oregon’s Orange Bowl matchup against Texas Tech on Jan. 1 is scheduled to kick off at 9 a.m. PT from the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, with the game broadcast on ESPN. 

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