Rece Davis Makes One Thing Clear About Oregon’s College Football Playoff Chances

EUGENE - March madness? How about November madness?

The College Football Playoff race is taking shape after the committee released its second edition of the rankings. The Oregon Ducks were the biggest movers of the week, jumping seven spots after beating Ohio State at The Horseshoe. For ESPN’s Rece Davis, the most telling part of the move was where Oregon landed relative to every other team with three losses.

Rece Davis On Oregon's College Football Playoff Chances

Nov 8, 2025; Lubbock, Texas, USA; ESPN College Game Day host Rece Davis before the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Brigham Young Cougars at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At No. 16, the Ducks are the highest-ranked three-loss team in the country. That’s why Davis thinks Oregon could still grab one of the final at-large bids if it wins out.

“They’re the highest-ranked three-loss team, and I think the door is open to them on a couple of fronts,” Davis said on the Pat McAfee Show. “One is the one you mentioned. You keep winning, all of a sudden it looks as if you’ve righted the ship and you get one of the last at-large bids.”

There are six more three-loss teams in the College Football Playoff rankings: No. 17 South Carolina, No. 19 Ole Miss, No. 20 Ohio State, No. 21 LSU, No. 22 Missouri and No. 25 Oklahoma State.

The other way Oregon could make the CFP is by winning the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis on Dec. 5. The Ducks would need some help to get there.

Davis detailed how an Illinois loss and two more Indiana losses would help Oregon get to the title game. Both teams face ranked opponents this weekend. Illinois visits No. 4 UCLA on Friday, and No. 18 USC travels to No. 9 Indiana on Saturday.

Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talk before a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

“(Oregon) would kind of have the inside track if those two things happen... So they'll be big Trojan fans this weekend,” Davis said.

ESPN's College Football Playoff Predictor gives Oregon a 32 percent chance if they finish 3-0 in the regular season but don't receive an invite to the Big Ten title game. That changes to an 18 percent chance if they make the Big Ten Championship but don't win it.

How Boise State Could Strengthen Oregon’s At-Large Case

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The Ducks' resume and challenging schedule are fueling their CFP chances for an at-large bid. There is one underrated win that is speaking volumes right now.

Davis pointed to a win from the opening weekend when the Ducks beat Boise State 34-27 at Autzen Stadium. The Broncos have won eight straight since and are ranked No. 24, as the only team from outside the Power Four in the committee’s top 25.

Sep 5, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Boise State Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning embrace after a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“Even if that doesn’t happen, with the way we’ve seen all of these teams falling and Oregon ascending and playing well and the Boise win is going to look good for them, I think there is a possibility that they could be a three-loss at-large team by the end of it. They’ll need some things to fall their way. They’d probably be better served if it went their way in the Big Ten and they just won the conference.”

In terms of resume, Oregon is one of four teams, along with Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss, with at least three wins over opponents ranked at the time of the game.

In fact, five of Oregon’s first nine opponents are currently ranked. The Ducks beat No. 18 USC, No. 20 Ohio State and No. 24 Boise State and lost to No. 4 UCLA and No. 25 Oklahoma State. Oregon also beat Northwestern when the Wildcats were ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll, a week before winning at Ohio State.

Coach Dan Lanning Stays Focused

The Ducks might be finding their momentum at the right time. However, Oregon has to win out its final three games for any of this to come to fruition. Oregon coach Dan Lanning has emphasized to the team that it's important to be playing its best football in November.

"Based on what we show we're capable of and how we're playing right now, I'm sure a lot of teams don't want us in those 12 teams, especially coming down the stretch. And if it's about having the best teams in the end, we've got to see who's playing the best football at the end. And we get an opportunity to go out here Saturday and show that," Lanning said on the Pat McAfee Show.

Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola, walks off after the Ducks’ win as the Oregon Ducks host the Northwestern Wildcats on Oct. 31, 2026, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Lanning has leaned on the words of former Alabama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban during this rollercoaster of a season.

"I think one thing that I've kind of really helped myself with is what you hear coach (Nick) Saban say all the time is like, we don't control outcomes, but we can influence outcomes," Lanning said. "And we got a bunch of players in that room that don't want to quit."

The Ducks get their first chance to build on the Ohio State win Saturday against Michigan at Autzen Stadium. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. PT on FS1.

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