Three Games the Oregon Ducks Can’t Afford to Lose in 2026

The Oregon Ducks will go in to their 2026 season with little room for error. The College Football Playoff committee have already set the precedent of leaving out a team with two losses from the playoff entirely.

Dec 20, 2025; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks on during the fourth quarter against the James Madison Dukes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks will go into their 2026 season with high expectations, and a very low margin of error given the strength of their schedule. The Ducks have important games against Ohio State on the road, as well as a home duel with the Michigan Wolverines. While the Ducks don't “have” to defeat Ohio State in Columbus in 2026, there are a plethora of games the Ducks simply can't afford to lose if they hope to make the College Football Playoff. 

Throughout the course of the season in 2024 and 2025, the Ducks and coach Dan Lanning did themselves a favor by not dropping any games against lesser opponents. They will have to do the same in 2026 to avoid leaving their fate in the hands of the CFP committee.

Here are three "must win" games for the 2026 season.

Ducks' Must Win Season Opener Against Boise State

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore walks off the field as the Oregon Ducks face the Indiana Hoosiers in the Peach Bowl on Jan. 9, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One game in 2026 that the Ducks absolutely can not afford to drop is their season opener at home against Boise State. The Ducks started slow against Idaho in their season opener in 2024 and will have to get off on the right foot to start their season. The Ducks faced off against Boise State in their second game of the season in 2024, and it went down to the wire, requiring a game-winning field goal from Oregon to escape. 

Oregon Ducks Will Face Tough Road Test Against Michigan State

Dec 20, 2025; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks on before the game against the James Madison Dukes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The Ducks will have a road trip to Michigan State in their penultimate game of the season, which will be a must-win game. The Ducks being undefeated up until that game is a tall order, and if they do enter their game in East Lansing with a loss on their schedule already, a loss to the Spartans could be seen as damning by the College Football Playoff committee.

 The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were left out of the 2025 College Football Playoff with just two losses, so there is a precedent in place that a 10-2 team could find itself on the outside looking in. 

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Oregon Ducks Must Build Momentum Going in to Gauntlet of Schedule

Nov 8, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning enters Kinnick Stadium before the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

A third game the Ducks can not afford to lose is their Halloween game at home against Northwestern. The Ducks were able to defeat Northwestern away last season and will need the same result in 2026. The Ducks travel to Columbus a week after their matchup against the Wildcats, and return home a week after that to take on Michigan. A loss to Northwestern could start a skid that would essentially ruin the Ducks' chances to make the College Football Playoff. 

If Oregon is able to take care of business against Boise State, Michigan State, and Northwestern, then a loss to either Ohio State in Columbus or against Michigan at Autzen Stadium shouldn't destroy their national championship dreams.