3 Matchups That Will Decide Penn State's Week 9 Game vs. Purdue

The Nittany Lions seek to end a four-game losing streak when they host the Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Carson Hansen (21) runs with the ball against the Buffalo Bulls at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State and Purdue match up for the 22nd time Saturday, with the Nittany Lions carrying an 11-game series winning streak into the game. Both teams will be coming off a bye week. 

The Nittany Lions, currently on a four-game losing skid, are starved for a win, while the Boilermakers are eyeing their first victory over Penn State since 2004. Penn State began the week as a 7-point favorite, according to DraftKings, and the line since has moved to 10 points.

So how do Penn State and head coach Matt Campbell finally enter the win column in Big Ten play? Here are three matchups we’re looking at that should decide Saturday’s contest, starting with a specific down where Penn State must be better. 

Penn State’s offense on third down vs. Purdue’s defense

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to pass in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State’s offense has been abysmal on third down in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions are converting just 31.6 percent of their third downs in conference games and rank 14th in the conference with a 35.8-percent conversion rate. 

In a matchup that could become a shootout, Penn State must be more successful on third downs. Purdue enters the game last in the Big Ten in opponent third-down conversions, surrendering a whopping 48.7-percent success rate. 

That, of course, significantly hinges on how the Nittany Lions fare on first and second downs, which has been more of a pain in conference play with a lack of rush attack. The Boilermakers present a subpar run defense — 16th in the Big Ten, allowing 161.6 rushing yards per game —  that will be the worst Penn State has seen in conference play. 

Penn State’s rush attack vs. Purdue’s rush defense

Michigan linebacker Chase Taylor (4) tackles Penn State running back Carson Hansen (21) during the second half at Michigan Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Again, the Boilermakers have had severe trouble stopping the run. On top of the 161.6 rushing yards per game they’ve surrendered, they’ve also allowed 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game, third-worst in the Big Ten. 

But Penn State’s running backs have also struggled mightily. That group hasn’t combined to run for more than 68 yards since Week 4 against Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions running backs are averaging just 2.2 yards per carry mark in that stretch. Something has to give. 

If Penn State can even bump that number to 3.5 yards per carry, that takes a significant amount of pressure off quarterback Rocco Becht, who’s been the limelight of the team’s offensive struggles. 

Penn State’s pass rush vs. Purdue’s offensive line

Penn State Nittany Lions running back James Peoples (1) runs the ball against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at New Ryan Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Nittany Lions’ defensive line has been a liability through seven games. That might even be understating it. The defensive front has generated just two sacks this season. Linebacker Tony Rojas has five, for reference. 

That unit has been unable to pressure opposing quarterbacks, yet somehow offenses still haven’t been able to throw on Penn State’s secondary. The Nittany Lions rank third nationally in passing defense, surrendering 141.3 yards per game.

But Saturday presents a tough air-raid attack for the Nittany Lions’ defense. Purdue’s quarterback Ryan Browne and the Boilermakers offense combine for an average of 280.7 passing yards per game, sitting fourth in the conference and just trailing USC. 

Just as a reminder, Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava threw for 301 passing yards and three touchdowns in the White Out game a couple of weeks ago. So Penn State has shown it can get decimated through the air. 

If it can generate any bit of pass-rush on Saturday, that could perhaps stymie a dynamic Purdue air attack.

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