This Week in Penn State Football: Analyzing the Enigmatic Nittany Lions

The Penn State football staff gets a break this week, as recruiting pauses and the team grinds through winter workouts. Matt Campbell and his staff spent the past five weeks pushing through prospect camps and official-visit weekends, punctuated by Saturday's barbecue for 2028 recruits.

We're heading into vacation season for college football coaches, who get about a month off before heading to their respective preseason media days. Campbell and Penn State will take the stage July 28 at Big Ten Media Days, which return to Chicago for the first time since the pandemic.

Still, Penn State football news and analysis doesn't end. Miss any stories this week? We've got you covered with our weekly look at the Nittany Lions.

Is Penn State's season 'impossible' to predict?

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to throw a pass on the run during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Bill Connelly of ESPN devised his SP+ rankings as a predictive guide based on a team's efficiency. Yet Connelly called the 2026 Nittany Lions "seemingly impossible" to predict.

It's a fair conclusion, given that Penn State resembles the 2025 Iowa State Cyclones as much as the 2025 Nittany Lions. Of the 40 transfers, 24 are from Iowa State, as is much of the 2026 recruiting class that Campbell flipped from Ames. Consequently, Connelly wrote, Penn State is an enigma.

'Penn State is seemingly impossible to project, especially since the Nittany Lions will be more Iowa State than PSU this season under new coach Matt Campbell," Connelly wrote. "They could indeed be a borderline top-15 team or they could stumble out of the top 40 — neither would surprise me much."

Of course, as many others have concluded, Penn State's friendly schedule will keep it competitive. Connelly ranks Penn State's schedule strength 18th in the Big Ten, as the Nittany Lions play only three of his nine other conference teams projected in the top 40.

"Penn State's projection becomes even more interesting when you realize how much easier the Nittany Lions' schedule is than the other teams in their general light heavyweight class," Connelly wrote.

How Penn State spends its $$$

Penn State football general manager Derek Hoodjer speaks to reporters at Beaver Stadium. | Mark Wogenrich/Penn State On SI

Campbell and general manager Derek Hoodjer just spent more than five months budgeting their 2026 roster and 2027 recruiting class. They weren't unrelated.

Penn State didn't have a ton of time or money to spend on the 2026 class, largely because of its retention and transfer plans took budget priority. The 2027 class is Campbell and Hoodjer's first in State College, so they had more resources to distribute.

What was their plan? Campbell and Hoodjer discussed that earlier this year, with Campbell reiterating that his largely hasn't changed from Iowa State to Penn State, even as the budget has.

"How we use the money, I still think from our end that probably didn’t change," Campbell said. "I think, what’s the sweet spot? Team is still most important. Earning the money is [something] I still believe in."

Another wild week for recruiting

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell looks on from the field during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State's 2027 recruiting class has played a bit of pick-up-and drop lately. The Nittany Lions have lost three commits in June, notably 4-star receiver Jamir Dean to Georgia.

But Campbell also landed a major commitment from 4-star defensive Elijah Guertin, who is ranked as the No. 1 player in Rhode Island by the 247Sports Composite. Penn State's 2027 class still has some major targets out there, notably receivers Khalil Taylor of western Pennsylvania and Deshawn Hall of Alabama.

Still, the Nittany Lions' ranking has slid. One ranked fourth nationally, Penn State is 16th in the 247Sports Composite and fifth in the Big Ten behind Oregon, USC, Ohio State and UCLA. And Nebraska is nipping at Penn State's heels, with Taylor considering the Cornhuskers.

Penn State also picked up its second commit in the 2028 class from Bufflo kicker Carter Petri, who received his first offer from the Nittany Lions.

Good Penn State reads

This sequence propelled Marcus Blaze to victory over Jax Forrest to make the World team #finalx pic.twitter.com/1CT6T9Y8cj
— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) June 19, 2026

Penn State wrestling's Marcus Blaze scored an impressive best-of-three series victory over Oklahoma State's Jax Forrest at Final X, USA Wrestling's qualifier for the Senior World Championships. Blaze clinched his first trip to Senior Worlds with a savvy move late in his deciding match.

Speaking of wrestling, former Penn State star Bo Nickal brought a bit of Penn State to the White House for UFC Freedom 250.

Penn State men's basketball might have found a hidden portal gem in former St. Bonaventure point guard Dasonte Bowen.

Back to football: Some early betting lines are out for Penn State's 2026 schedule. Will the Nittany Lions be an underdog for the White Out?

What are Penn State's keys to making a playoff run? We found five.

Bo Nickal’s full #UFCfreedom250 walkout to a live rendition of Penn State’s signature cheer. 👊🏼 pic.twitter.com/i7at85ZTL9
— The Wrestling Room (Pat Mineo) (@MrPatMineo) June 15, 2026

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