Three Biggest Overreactions Penn State Football Fans Should Avoid Right Now

The Matt Campbell era at Penn State launches this week, with Saturday marking the season opener against Marshall. But what are the expectations for this Penn State football team, and are they justified?

The sportsbooks believe the Nittany Lions will contend for a College Football Playoff spot, and their over/under wins total of 9.5 on Fanduel backs that. ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit agrees. He said recently on the Pat McAfee Show that Penn State will be a playoff team in part because of its favorable schedule.

But are Herbstreit and the sportsbooks overstating the potential benefits of Penn State’s regular-season schedule? We addressed that, and other possible overreactions, regarding the 2026 Penn State Nittany Lions, who remain a difficult team to read.

Overreaction: Penn State is a playoff team because of its schedule

"I think Penn State are a playoff team and their schedule really favors them..

I'm a big fan of Matt Campbell" ~ @KirkHerbstreit #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/0Mq37eZ7E9
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) August 27, 2026

Too many people are pitching the Nittany Lions as playoff contenders because of their schedule. Yes, it’s on the lighter side. Campbell probably couldn’t have asked for a better Big Ten card in his first year as head coach.

The Nittany Lions don’t face Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana, the first-, third- and sixth-ranked teams in the preseason AP Top 25. They also get No. 14 USC at home in the White Out.

But will the season be a disappointment if Penn State doesn’t play into December, as On3’s Ari Wasserman suggested? No, and the talk surrounding Penn State’s schedule is creating unreasonable expectations.

This team still has too many question marks to be considered a strong postseason contender. In fact, The Athletic gives Penn State has a 29-percent chance to make the playoff, tied with USCA and above Michigan and Washington.

But who is Penn State’s go-to player in crunch time on offense? Will one of the cornerbacks step up and become a lockdown defensive back? Can the completely new defensive line not be a liability?

There’s so much unknown regarding Penn State heading into the season. And there are so many moving parts. Not to mention the Nittany Lions still have at minimum three very tough matchups this season.

Michigan and Washington on the road are tough, and USC at home for the White Out might be the best team they face all year. Penn State needs to win at least one of those to compete for a playoff spot.

In all, there’s a very realistic scenario in which, despite the relatively light schedule, the Nittany Lions go 8-4 or 9-3 and miss the playoffs.

With this schedule draw, it feels like Penn State has to make the CFP in year one of the Matt Campbell era. pic.twitter.com/fDkcGwVWrF
— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman) August 27, 2026

Overreaction: It will take too long for Penn State to adjust to Big Ten football

Penn State Nittany Lions offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser answers questions during football media day in Holuba Hall. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It’s a fair concern. Campbell and Iowa State played only one Big Ten team during his 10-year tenure in Ames: Iowa. The Cyclones were 3-6 against the Hawkeyes in that stretch.

On the bright side, Iowa State won three of its last four games against Iowa dating to 2022. So maybe Campbell and offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser were just starting to figure out how to beat Big Ten competition. And if you want to include Oregon, which wasn’t in the Big Ten when it faced the Cyclones in 2020, you could tack another win to that resume.

But Penn State has two promising notes of Big Ten readiness. First, Mouser’s offense scheme is inspired by the NFL. One of his best friends is Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase.

Mouser runs a “spread-pro offense” that aims to run the ball and create explosive plays through the air and on the ground. That was missing for Penn State last year.

Second, defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn came from USC, so he’s very familiar with the Big Ten.

“We're a very, very curious offensive staff,” Mouser said in February. “We're trying to watch as much tape as we can. Everybody on our staff, every offensive coach, has an NFL team we study, a college team that we study, and high school coaches that we love to talk to, because they're always on the front edge of stuff too.”

Overreaction: Penn State is Iowa State 2.0

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell celebrates with quarterback Rocco Becht after defeating West Virginia. — Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell celebrates with quarterback Rocco Becht after defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Maybe the most overused term since Campbell’s arrival is that Penn State is just Iowa State East. Sure, the Nittany Lions welcomed an abundant 24 former Cyclones to their roster, but they also returned numerous players from the 2025 team, most of whom have been overshadowed recently.

Of the returners, linebacker Tony Rojas is one of the best at his position in the Big Ten. Cornerbacks Daryus Dixson, Zion Tracy (whom Campbell called “one of the best football players that I've coached”) and Audavion Collins make up a strong and deep position group. And redshirt junior Anthony Donkoh should be one of the top right tackles in the conference.

Further, Penn State has two former top-60 recruits in offensive linemen Cooper Cousins and Malachi Goodman, two high-ceilinged defensive ends in Max Granville and Yvan Kemajou and running back Quinton Martin Jr., who could emerge as the top player in the backfield.

The players Campbell brought from Iowa State were much-needed, talented additions. However, the returning core of the team hasn’t received enough praise, and they could be the reason Penn State makes a run at the College Football Playoff.

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