Why Penn State Is the Big Ten's Most Difficult Team to Predict

Penn State continues to be the most difficult team to read in the Big Ten, and maybe even the country, according to the media folks trying to analyze it. The latest example comes from Cleveland.com's annual Big Ten football media poll, which acts as the de facto preseason pick spot for the conference.

Since the Big Ten doesn't produce a preseason poll, Cleveland.com's 16th annual poll is the go-to glance. And apparently Penn State drew a wide range of opinions.

Penn State ranks sixth overall in the poll, receiving 380 total points in the media voting. The Nittany Lions were far behind No. 5 Michigan (430 points) but also ahead of Washington (366). Ohio State drew the top spot with 11 of 16 first-place votes and 540 points overall.

Oregon received 11 first-place votes and 527 points overall, while defending conference and national champ Indiana received five first-place votes and 509 points. USC is fourth with 446 points.

However, according to Cleveland.com, Penn State had the widest range of votes in the poll. The Nittany Lions ranged from fourth to 11th, reporter Stephen Means wrote, a signal that no one really know what do with the team.

A side note comes with Cleveland.com's poll for the Big Ten offensive and defensive players of the year. No Nittany Lions received votes for either spot, suggesting that the Big Ten media aren't sure what to make of the talent on Penn State's roster.

The Nittany Lions are "seemingly impossible" to predict

Uplifting Athletes President and Penn State football letterman Brett Brackett talks to the team at Lift For Life. — Uplifting Athletes President and Penn State football letterman Brett Brackett talks to the team at the end of the 23rd annual Lift for Life at Holuba Hall. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN's Bill Connelly, author of the SP+ rankings, began the narrative that the 2026 Penn State is "seemingly impossible" to forecast. The Cleveland.com poll is the follow-up, and both views are understandable.

Penn State returned 52 players from its 2025 roster, including multiple critical starters like linebacker Tony Rojas, tackle Anthony Donkoh and cornerbacks Audavion Collins and Zion Tracy.

But the focus remains on the 55 new players on the roster, including 40 who transferred after Campbell was hired in December. Twenty-four of those players came from Iowa State, prompting speculation that Penn State's roster is Iowa State 2.0 of East Ames.

How that talent blends is the defining characteristic of Penn State's 2026 season and quite difficult to predict.

'Penn State is seemingly impossible to project, especially since the Nittany Lions will be more Iowa State than PSU this season under new coach Matt Campbell," Connelly wrote. "They could indeed be a borderline top-15 team or they could stumble out of the top 40 — neither would surprise me much."

Even Campbell finished spring practice without a real gauge of his team's potential, calling it "too early to tell."

"The reality from our end of it is, every step of the way we were thinking about how do you build the best roster to be our best?" Campbell said. "I think we grew immensely through the first 16 weeks of our time with this football team. But are we ready? Are we capable? We had a lot of injuries, a lot of guys didn't practice this spring, so did we gain real momentum?

"I think this is a team that, if it’s going to reach its full potential, it’'s going to have to be able to be its best. Sometimes being your best is being a little lucky with injuries, being groomed to be its best physically and play its best in critical moments. I think those things are still out there. Like what kind of team are we really? I think fall camp will tell us a lot more about who we are and where we're at."

The Big Ten media get their first glimpse at the Nittany Lions on Tuesday in Chicago, which is hosting this week's Big Ten Football Media Days. Campbell and the Nittany Lions take the stage on Day of the three-day media event.

Sign up to our free Penn State Nittany Lions newsletter and follow us on social media.

Add us as a preferred source on Google