5 Reasons Why Purdue Could Upset USC in Big Ten Opener
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Nobody expects Purdue to have a shot against USC on Saturday. The Boilermakers might be playing in front of a home crowd, but apparently not many people have distanced this year's team from the 2024 squad that finished 1-11.
As a result, Purdue is a 21.5-point home underdog to USC, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. It seems like a fairly wide margin, especially for a pair of Big Ten teams that enter the game with 2-0 records.
Lincoln Riley's team is off to a hot start, defeating Missouri State 73-13 and Georgia Southern 59-20. But Purdue has enjoyed a nice start under first-year head coach Barry Odom, beating Ball State 31-0 and Southern Illinois 34-17.
Many may be counting Purdue out before toe meets leather on Saturday, but there are a few reasons why the Boilers have a chance to pull off an upset in the Big Ten opener.
USC has struggled with long travel
Not to bring last year into play, but USC struggled in those long, cross-country trips during the 2024 season. Although the Trojans were competitive in their three longest journeys, they were on the losing side of the scoreboard each time.
USC lost road games to No. 18 Michigan (27-24), Minnesota (24-17), and Maryland (29-28) one year ago. The Trojans were just 1-4 on the road in the Big Ten last season, with the lone win coming over UCLA in the Rose Bowl.
How much does that body clock impact the Trojans? Or is that issue a problem of the past for Riley's team?
The Trojans may have some weaknesses in the secondary
Look at the final score, and it may not seem like USC has had much trouble putting away Missouri State and Georgia Southern in the first two weeks. And, truthfully, they haven't. That doesn't mean there isn't a few weaknesses on this team, though.
One of the biggest is USC's secondary, which has given up 18 "long scrimmage" passing plays (plays going for 10 or more yards) through the first two games. That's currently tied for 15th in the Big Ten.
Those explosive plays that USC has surrendered include three touchdown passes of more than 20 yards.
Purdue's passing attack wasn't great last week against Southern Illinois, but quarterback Ryan Browne did rack up 311 yards through the air in the Week 1 win over Ball State. That's something to watch.
Familiarity with QB Jayden Maiava
Through the first two games, Maiava has certainly looked like one of the top passers in the Big Ten. He's already racked up a league-best 707 yards and six touchdowns while completing 73.8% of his passes. Without question, he's going to be difficult to stop.
Purdue's staff does have some deep knowledge of what Maiava brings to the table, though. The quarterback was at UNLV when head coach Barry Odom and defensive coordinator Mike Scherer were in Las Vegas. Maiava also played under current Boilermakers offensive coordinator Josh Henson, who was at USC the previous three years.
Both Odom and Scherer acknowledged how talented and competitive Maiava is when he has the helmet strapped on. But knowing his tendencies and how to attack his weaknesses could be advantageous for the Boilermakers.
Purdue's defense has been disruptive in the backfield
No, Purdue's first two opponents haven't been great. However, the defense has shown the ability to consistently pressure the quarterback and cause disruptions in the backfield. In wins over Ball State and Southern Illinois, the Boilers have tallied seven sacks and 14 tackles for loss.
Linebacker Charles Correa and defensive lineman CJ Nunnally IV have been particularly good in that area, combining for 4.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
The good news for USC? This offensive line will be the best Purdue has faced (obviously) to date. The Trojans have only allowed one sack and six tackles for loss through two contests.
Josh Henson knows USC's personnel
Henson was on Riley's staff for three years at USC before joining Odom in West Lafayette. He still has a pretty strong understanding of the Trojans' personnel and some of the team's tendencies.
"I do know their personnel well. They do have some new guys who are playing well up front on the defensive line," Henson said. "Is there an advantage? Yeah, sure, because you know, intimately, what they're capable of. You have a feel for the things you need to work on to get ready for each guy as you're heading through the week."
Henson's knowledge of USC's personnel and tendencies could prove to be an asset throughout the week of preparation, as well as on game day.
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Dustin Schutte is the publisher of Purdue Boilermakers on SI and has spent more than a decade working in sports journalism. His career began in 2013, when he covered Big Ten football. He remained in that role for eight years before working at On SI to cover the Boilermakers. Dustin graduated from Manchester University in Indiana in 2010, where he played for the men's tennis team.
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