The Worst Case Scenario For Texas A&M Football In 2026

Despite sky-high expectations in Year 3 under Mike Elko, several potential pitfalls could keep the Aggies from returning to the College Football Playoff.

Oct 25, 2025; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko during the first half against the Louisiana State Tigers at Tiger Stadium. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

After two seasons as Texas A&M football’s commander-in-chief, head coach Mike Elko has awakened a sleeping giant, creating a College Football Playoff contender in College Station. 

With back-to-back winning seasons, including the Aggies’ first 11-0 start since 1992, the 12th Man has reason to believe that the third installment of Elko‘s tenure will be his most successful season yet. 

But with a complete personnel rotation, A&M could get off to a slow start. Here’s the worst-case scenario for the Aggies in 2026.

A&M Loses 3+ Road Games

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko watches the replay in the third quarter against the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

In Southeastern Conference play, the Aggies will get comfortable in the lion’s den, traveling to LSU, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina and Oklahoma. 

Under first-year head coach Lane Kiffin, LSU secured the No. 1 transfer portal class in 2026, making the Bayou Bengals an immediate early-season threat for Elko’s reloaded squad. 

As for Missouri and South Carolina, head coaches Eli Drinkwitz and Shane Beamer face what some consider to be must-win seasons. The Tigers ended their 2025 campaign with an 8-5 record, after failing to secure a single win against an AP top-25-ranked opponent. Similarly, the Gamecocks gave a disappointing performance in 2025, winning only 4-of-12 contests despite holding an AP top-10 ranking after Week 1.

In dire need of success, either team may look for a statement win over the highly touted Aggies.

Both Alabama and Oklahoma made College Football Playoff appearances in 2025 and look to return to the promised land in 2026, where victories over A&M could provide a valuable boost to their postseason resumes. 

In five hostile environments, where wins come at a premium, the Aggies’ postseason legitimacy will be put to the test.

New Coordinators Take Time To Settle In

Alabama Crimson Tide wide receivers coach Holmon Wiggins against the Georgia Bulldogs | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Having first-year coordinators on both sides of the ball, there’s no guarantee that offensive coordinator Holman Wiggins and defensive coordinator Lyle Hemphill are going to hit the ground running. 

Neither Wiggins nor Hemphill holds SEC coordinating experience and may use the 2026 season to get comfortable in their new positions.  

Through returning starters and offseason additions, the Aggies definitely have the talent to pick up where it left off at the end of 2025, but every coaching turnover brings its initial difficulties, which could hinder A&M from performing at its full capability until 2027.

Marcel Reed’s Ceiling Is Behind Him

Dec 20, 2025; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed (10) looks on during the game between the Aggies and the Hurricanes at Kyle Field. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Entering Week 12 of the 2025 regular season, redshirt junior quarterback Marcel Reed had passed for 2,752 yards and 25 touchdowns, as well as secured 338 yards and six touchdowns on the ground to claim the third-best odds of winning the Heisman Trophy, with a +700 chance.

But in the Aggies’ final pair of contests against Texas and Miami, Reed went cold. 

The Nashville native was kept out of the endzone across the two-game stretch, throwing a combined 417 passing yards and four interceptions.  

Reed has made steady progress each season, but the lackluster end to 2025 could carry into 2026 and catalyze A&M’s regression.

Lackluster Transfers

Due to Elko‘s previous success in the transfer portal, most experts expect this season’s batch of Aggie newcomers to be an immediate hit.

With the end of the 2025 season, A&M lost leaders on both sides of the ball and turned to the transfer portal for support.

By adding an experienced playmaker like Isaiah Horton and a strong pass protector like Wilkin Formby to the Aggie offense, the 12th Man doesn’t seem to be too worried heading into 2026.

However, if this season’s transfers don’t make the immediate impact that Elko expects them to, both sides of the ball could fall short, resulting in a long, frustrating season.

In 2023, Florida State went undefeated to claim an ACC Championship, only to fall to 2-10 the next season, after relying too heavily on the transfer portal for offseason upgrades. 

The Aggies’ 2026 newcomers seem to bring extra experience and talent to an otherwise National Championship-contending squad, but in today’s era of College Football, there’s never a guarantee. 

Third-Straight Loss to Texas

Nov 28, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning keeps the ball and runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Heading into 2024, excitement was at an all-time high in Aggieland due to the reestablishment of the Lonestar Showdown. After 12 long seasons, A&M finally got the chance to welcome Texas to Kyle Field.

But to the 12th Man’s demise, the Longhorns bested the Aggies in back-to-back contests, both at home and on the road, to prevent A&M from appearing in the SEC Championship. 

In 2026, Texas will return to Kyle Field on Nov. 27, looking for a third-straight victory.

Before the Lonestar Showdown, the Aggies travel to Columbia, South Carolina, for a matchup against the Gamecocks, only to return home to host the Tennessee Volunteers, before heading to Norman, Oklahoma, to face the Sooners. 

At the end of an SEC gauntlet, A&M could be left gasping for air ahead of its biggest game of the year. 

With another loss to the Longhorns, the negative stigma around Elko’s rivalry-game performances would be at record levels, tainting the Aggies’ season entirely.

Signs point to success for the future A&M's football program, but if Elko‘s reloaded squad fails to produce in these key areas, excitement could quickly become disappointment in 2026.

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